CICC: Online physical retail sales in August maintained robust growth, with the average price per package continuing to decline.

CICC released a research report stating that according to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, in August 2025, the total online retail sales (including physical and virtual goods) reached 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.4% year-on-year, with growth slowing down compared to the 13.5% increase in July 2025; online sales of virtual goods increased by 36.5% year-on-year to 281.9 billion yuan. In terms of prices, the State Post Bureau announced that the volume of express delivery business in August increased by 12.3% year-on-year, slowing down on a monthly basis, but still maintaining a faster growth rate than online physical retail; the average price per package was calculated to have decreased by 5% year-on-year, slightly narrower than the 6% decrease in July 2025, and the gap between the growth rates of online physical retail and express delivery business also narrowed on a monthly basis. Key points by CICC: CICC calculated based on the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics: In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year, showing a slower growth rate compared to the 3.7% in July 2025. In August 2025, the total online retail sales (including physical and virtual goods) reached 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.4% year-on-year, with growth slowing down compared to the 13.5% increase in July 2025. In August 2025, online sales of virtual goods increased by 36.5% year-on-year to 281.9 billion yuan. Steady growth in sales of physical goods In August 2025, online sales of physical goods increased by 7.1% year-on-year to 1 trillion yuan, a slowdown from the 8.3% increase in July 2025, mainly due to entering a time interval with a high base brought by last August's national subsidy, and subsequent entry into a completely high base interval, coupled with the tapering off of some regional subsidy policies, the year-on-year growth rate of online physical retail may continue to slow down. Continued increase in online penetration rate In August 2025, the online shopping penetration rate reached 25.6% (the percentage of online physical sales in total retail sales), a slight increase from the 24.8% in the same period last year, with a penetration rate of 24.8% in July 2025. Excluding the dining category, the online penetration rate was 28.9%, higher than the 28% of the same period last year; excluding the dining, automotive, and petroleum categories, the online penetration rate was 34.9%, higher than the 33.6% of the same period last year. In August 2025, offline retail sales increased by 2.2% year-on-year to 2.9 trillion yuan, a slight decrease from the 2.3% year-on-year increase in July 2025. Sales of physical goods online by category, sales of food products still show exceptional growth, clothing category growth continues to recover, and utility products show stable performance: 1) online sales of food products in August increased by 17.4% year-on-year; 2) online sales of clothing products in August increased by 8.2% year-on-year; 3) online sales of utility products in August increased by 5% year-on-year. The average price per package continues to decline, but the decline is slightly narrowing The State Post Bureau announced that the volume of express delivery business in August increased by 12.3% year-on-year, slowing down on a monthly basis, but still maintaining a faster growth rate than online physical retail; according to this calculation, the average price per package decreased by 5% year-on-year, slightly narrower than the 6% decrease in July 2025, and the gap between the growth rates of online physical retail and express delivery business also narrowed on a monthly basis. Risk factors Increased industry competition, macroeconomic uncertainty.