Data declines, but the chill is growing! The number of initial jobless claims in the United States dropped last week, but it cannot hide the weak state of the job market.

In the United States, the number of initial jobless claims decreased last week, but with both labor demand and supply decreasing, signs of a softening labor market have emerged. Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending September 13 fell to 231,000, below the previous 263,000 and market expectations of 240,000. At the same time, the number of continuing jobless claims for the week ending September 13 also decreased to 1.92 million, below the previous 1.939 million and market expectations of 1.95 million. It is reported that the increase in initial jobless claims is mainly concentrated in Texas. The state's labor commission stated that since September 1, they have "observed an increase in attempts to file fraudulent claims," with these fraudulent activities aimed at exploiting the unemployment insurance system. Although the number of initial jobless claims remains at relatively low levels, recruitment in the US labor market has almost stalled. Economists attribute the slowdown in labor demand to the uncertainty brought about by tariffs. Meanwhile, the Trump administration's crackdown on immigration has reduced labor supply, creating the "peculiar balance" described by Federal Reserve Chair Powell on Wednesday. Powell told reporters on Wednesday, "Normally when we talk about supply and demand balance, that's a good thing. But in this case, the so-called balance is because both supply and demand are sharply down. We are now seeing a slight increase in the unemployment rate." On Wednesday, local time, the Federal Reserve decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%. This is the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve since December 2024. The latest dot plot shows that the Federal Reserve will cut rates again by 50 basis points in 2025. In its statement, Federal Reserve policymakers acknowledged that recent inflation "has risen somewhat and remains at elevated levels," but also pointed out that the unemployment rate has "marginally increased," with significant downside risks in the labor market. Data from the US Department of Labor shows that the US unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, the highest in nearly four years, and the number of new non-farm jobs created has slowed for several months.