Cui Dongshu: The truck and bus market showed obvious signs of recovery in August, while passenger car retail sales slowed down.

In 2025, the macroeconomic situation maintained strong growth, with the automotive market maintaining strong growth under the government's promotion policy. In August, the overall trend of the national automotive market was strong, with noticeable rebounds in the truck and passenger vehicle markets. Due to the slow speed of retail transmission driving wholesale, retail sales in August 2024 were significantly stronger than wholesale, leading to a deceleration in passenger vehicle retail sales in August this year, but manufacturer sales growth remained good. The trend of new energy vehicles in August was strong, the automotive export market continued to strengthen, and manufacturer inventory changes were small. In August, the commercial vehicle market showed structural growth characteristics driven by new energy, with accelerated electrification in logistics transport and pickup models. 1. Different trends in passenger and commercial vehicles in 2025 In recent years, a clear differentiation trend between passenger and commercial vehicles has emerged, with a weakening commercial vehicle market and improving passenger vehicle consumption due to the continued decline in real estate. In 2025, driven by policy factors, passenger vehicle growth was relatively good at 13%, and commercial vehicles showed significant improvement from last year, particularly in the new energy commercial vehicle sector, including strong growth in the microbus market. The replacement policy for old vehicles had a strong impact on passenger vehicles, especially during the policy implementation period, leading to a strong overall trend in the automotive market. 2. Strong start for the automotive market in 2025 From January to August 2025, the total cumulative sales of automobiles reached 20.98 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 12%; in August, the total sales of automobiles reached 2.81 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%. Subsidies drove high retail growth in the first half of the year, and manufacturer sales remained strong in July and August, but the growth rate in the later months of September to December is expected to drop to 3% due to high base numbers. 3. Sharp differentiation in the performance of main automotive groups Compared to the chart for 2021, the performance of some automotive companies in 2022 was strong, with severe industry growth differentiation. The early 2022 epidemic led to significant pressure on traditional automotive companies, especially with the impact of new energy coupled with the epidemic. State-owned major groups showed differentiation in performance, with Guangzhou Auto and Chery performing well, with both their commercial and passenger vehicle segments doing well. Northern companies like FAW, Great Wall, and BAIC faced pressure in their performance. The trend of the automotive market began to differentiate in early 2023 due to the promotion of new energy vehicles. State-owned enterprises showed overall differentiation, with some falling behind. New energy companies like BYD and Tesla showed strong performance, while Chery and Tesla performed relatively well this year. Second-tier automotive companies showed differentiation as the transition from old to new energy and continuous losses in new energy vehicles put pressure on small and medium-sized independent brands. The automotive industry's lineup changed completely in 2024, with BYD lowering prices for new products and experiencing strong demand in the passenger vehicle sales sector, contributing to good performance by Chery, Geely, and Dongfeng, with SAIC still experiencing a sharp decline. BYD and Tesla showed differing growth rates in new energy vehicles. The landscape of automotive manufacturers changed drastically, showing significant growth differentiation in the industry, with private enterprises replacing state-owned enterprises as the main force in the industry from 2025. Companies like Geely, BYD, Chery, and Great Wall maintained higher growth rates, indicating a sustainable trend. SAIC showed strong performance this year, with an improvement in growth rates. Manufacturer sales overall improved in August, with some manufacturers showing stronger trends compared to July, including Geely, Chery, and Chang'an, showing strong year-on-year growth, while the sales of some manufacturers like Dongfeng in August saw significant adjustments compared to the previous month. 4. Trends in production and sales of narrow passenger vehicle enterprises From January to August 2025, total cumulative sales of narrow passenger vehicles reached 18 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 13%; in August, total sales reached 2.46 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14%. In recent years, technological innovations and strong competition in new energy vehicles have led to weak launches of new fuel vehicles. After Chinese New Year in 2025, there was rapid growth in new energy vehicles, with the base still relatively low in August, and the automotive market maintained strong growth of 14% from May to August. In August, major automotive companies showed overall strength, with independent brands leading the way and joint venture companies showing improved performance in August. BYD took the lead, followed by Geely Auto, with Chery maintaining the third position in August. Joint ventures like FAW-VW, SAIC-VW, and FAW-Toyota showed relatively stable performance. The main players in the passenger vehicle market rapidly differentiated, with manufacturers focusing on new energy vehicles showing stronger performance, particularly among independent brands. Total retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles in 2023 reached 21.7 million units, with a cumulative growth of 5.6%; in 2024, total sales reached 22.89 million units, a year-on-year growth of 5.5%; in August 2025, total retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles reached 2 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5%. The total retail sales in 2025 reached 14.73 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, showing a trend of deceleration. 5. Trends in production and sales of new energy passenger vehicle enterprises In 2024, sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 12.24 million units, showing a strong growth trend with a 38% increase, driven by scrappage incentives, manufacturer price reductions, and new models. In August 2025, total sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.28 million units, a 22% year-on-year increase; from January to August, total wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 8.94 million units, a 34% year-on-year increase. In August, Geely, Changan, Zero Run, and XPeng showed strong month-on-month trends, with some companies voluntarily retracting in August. The national automotive market showed significant differentiation in growth rates at the provincial level, with varying growth rates among manufacturers. 6. Trends in production and sales of traditional power passenger vehicle enterprises In 2023, sales of traditional fuel narrow passenger vehicles reached 16.66 million units, roughly the same as in the same period in 2022; in 2024, sales of traditional narrow passenger vehicles reached 14.95 million units, a 10% decrease compared to the previous year; from January to August 2025, sales reached 9.06 million units, a 2% decrease year-on-year, with a 6% increase in August. The continued decline in conventional passenger vehicles earlier put market pressure. Recently, there has been a relative rebound in the trend of traditional vehicles, but the impact of new energy vehicle prices will continue to be felt, with hopes that traditional vehicles can stabilize and resume growth. The dominance of joint venture companies in conventional power narrow passenger vehicles is gradually changing, with Chery, Geely, and the top three joint ventures showing strong market performance. FAW-VW leads in joint ventures, and the advantage of independent brands over joint ventures in the fuel vehicle sector is not obvious, with joint venture companies still having strong technical capabilities in fuel vehicles. 7. Classification trends in production and sales of passenger vehicle enterprises In 2023, total cumulative sales of passenger vehicles reached 750,000 units, with a cumulative growth of 19%; in 2024, total cumulative sales of passenger vehicles reached 800,000 units, a cumulative decrease of 3%; from January to August 2025, total cumulative sales of passenger vehicles reached 590,000 units, with a cumulative growth of 21%; in August, total sales of passenger vehicles reached 78,000 units, a 28% year-on-year increase. In early 2025, passenger vehicles showed relatively strong trends. In June 2025, top manufacturers had a sales surge, with a slight decrease in July, and strong performances in August by major automotive companies, with Changan and Wuling showing strong month-on-month growth. The recovery in micro-passenger vehicles and the strong growth of light electric vehicles drove the strong growth of passenger vehicles. 8. Classification trends in production and sales of truck enterprises In 2023, total cumulative truck sales reached 3.54 million units, with a cumulative growth of 19%; in 2024, total cumulative truck sales reached 3.35 million units, a cumulative decrease of 3%; from January to August 2025, total cumulative truck sales reached 2.39 million units, with a cumulative growth of 5%; in August, total truck sales reached 270,000 units, a 17% year-on-year increase. The main truck manufacturers in 2025 showed a clear differentiation, with top manufacturers showing strong performance, particularly in heavy-duty trucks. Beiqi Foton Motor, FAW, and other companies showed strong year-on-year growth compared to August last year. The growth of light-duty trucks and pickup trucks in 2025 was weaker, with divergent trends in the industry. Source: WeChat public account "Chenlian Data," Author: Cui Dongshu, GMTEight Editor: Chen Qiuda.