Consumer confidence in the United States in September fell to a four-month low, while inflation expectations rose for the second consecutive month.
Consumer confidence in the United States unexpectedly dropped to its lowest level since May, with long-term inflation expectations rising for the second consecutive month, indicating ongoing concerns about the job market and prices are suppressing economic prospects.
Consumer confidence in the United States unexpectedly fell to its lowest level since May in September, with long-term inflation expectations rising for the second consecutive month, indicating ongoing concerns about the labor market and prices are suppressing economic outlook.
According to preliminary data released by the University of Michigan on Friday, the consumer confidence index for September dropped to 55.4, below August's 58.2, and almost lower than the predictions of all economists in a Bloomberg survey. The data shows that consumers expect prices to rise by 4.8% on an annual basis in the next year, unchanged from last month; while expectations for inflation in the next 5 to 10 years have jumped to 3.9%, higher than August's 3.5%.
Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan Consumer Survey, said, "Consumer expectations of personal job loss probability have risen significantly since the beginning of the year, and continued to rise in September, indicating their concerns about adverse changes in the labor market affecting themselves." She added, "In addition, the high pressure of prices is making consumers feel continuously squeezed."
Recent data portrays a situation where the labor market is clearly slowing down and inflation is stubborn. Only 22,000 non-farm jobs were added in the U.S. in August, the lowest increase of the year; at the same time, consumer prices rose at the fastest rate this year, with household expenses such as food, groceries, and gasoline significantly increasing.
The survey also shows that about 60% of respondents spontaneously mentioned the issue of tariffs, reflecting ongoing trade policy uncertainties eroding consumer sentiment. Sub-index data shows that the current situation index decreased from 61.7 in August to 61.2, while the expectation index decreased from 55.9 to 51.8.
From a political standpoint, the sentiment index of Republicans and Independents fell to a four-month low, while the outlook for Democrats slightly improved. The survey was conducted between August 26 and September 8.
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