Under the geopolitical storm, commodity volatility traders have become a hot commodity.

With the outbreak of trade wars and military conflicts causing drastic fluctuations in raw material prices, traders who profit from betting on the volatility of the commodity markets are becoming increasingly popular. Headhunters and market participants revealed that hedge funds such as Eisler Capital and quant trading firms like Squarepoint Capital have increased their efforts to recruit traders who can profit in volatile markets. Since the beginning of this year, prices of various commodities such as energy, metals, and coffee have been fluctuating - U.S. President Trump's tariffs on major trading partners have cast a shadow over the global economic outlook; conflicts between Israel and Iran have pushed several volatility indicators to their highest levels of the year; and progress in talks between Russia and Ukraine has injected new uncertainty into the energy markets. As a result, a commodity volatility index soared to its highest level since the beginning of 2023 in July, while the market was still recovering from the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Ross Gregory, Head of Global Commodities at Omerta Group, stated that compared to last year, the turbulent market environment this year has significantly increased the demand for cross-commodity and volatility portfolio managers and traders. Gregory, who joined Omerta under Kingsley Gate in June and now oversees the global commodities business, pointed out, "With geopolitical events unfolding daily, the commodity volatility trading desks are generating real profits." In some notable personnel changes, Eisler Capital poached cross-commodity volatility trader Greg Bugaj from Gunvor this year; Scott Harbert, who also worked at Gunvor, founded his own hedge fund, Crucible Commodities, and recruited trader Thompson Ng. According to LinkedIn profiles, senior metal trader Anthony Pears, with over ten years of experience at commodity trading firm Tocqueville Group, has joined Squarepoint Capital; and Dimitri Avramov, who previously worked as a cross-commodity volatility trader at Bank of America, recently switched to Morgan Stanley. Additionally, Robert Bennett, Head of Commodity Relative Value at Garda Capital, will also be joining Capstone in New York. Eisler did not respond to requests for comment, and Squarepoint did not immediately release a statement. It is understood that the core operating model of volatility traders is to bet on the magnitude of future price fluctuations through options (rather than the direction), and these traders rely heavily on professional knowledge in building pricing models and algorithms. For example, Bugaj from Eisler uses a combination of game theory, quant, and fundamental analysis to identify structural imbalances or pricing anomalies in the options market and profit from them. Gregory stated that the demand for commodity quant researchers who can program in Python and have a background in machine learning has significantly increased this year compared to 2024. This hiring trend also highlights the increasingly blurred lines between hedge funds and physical trading companies - two types of institutions that traditionally operate in different areas of the market. Reports indicate that hedge funds like Balyasny Asset Management and Qube Research & Technologies Ltd. have started engaging in physical natural gas trading in Europe for the first time this year. Qube has since taken steps to expand its physical trading business in the United States. However, even the most advanced models are not foolproof, especially in the current trading environment. Several top oil trading departments have reported a year-on-year decline in profits in the second quarter due to geopolitical shocks and unpredictable U.S. trade policies.