Guotai Haitong: Fed rate cut prolongs the medium-term trend, gold prices may fluctuate at high levels.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that the US employment data unexpectedly cold, causing market expectations for a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in September to increase, leading to potential marginal easing of liquidity. At the same time, there is uncertainty in the US tariff policy and inflation, leading to possible high volatility in gold prices. In terms of industrial metals, prices are expected to gain upward momentum as demand gradually recovers during the peak season and positive macroeconomic factors domestically and internationally provide support. Key points by Guotai Haitong: Cyclical analysis: The unexpectedly cold US employment data in August has increased downside risks in the labor market, prompting market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September and potential marginal easing of liquidity. Uncertainties remain in the US tariff policy and inflation, causing gold prices to potentially trade at high levels of volatility. Recent improvements in the domestic manufacturing sector and positive macroeconomic policies provide support for industrial metal prices. As we enter the traditional peak season, downstream processing rates have increased, waiting for demand to recover, while disruptions on the supply side still exist. The supply-demand situation is marginally improving, providing strong support for industrial metal prices. Precious metals: Monitoring US inflation for interest rate guidance, prices may fluctuate. In August, US non-farm employment unexpectedly declined to 22,000 (previous value 73,000, forecast 75,000), ADP employment numbers also declined unexpectedly, while unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. Downside risks in the US job market have increased, leading to higher market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. In addition, on September 5th, Trump signed an executive order adjusting tariffs, including reducing some goods' equivalent tariffs to zero. With uncertainties in US tariff policy and marginal easing of liquidity, gold prices are supported. Furthermore, attention should be paid to the upcoming US August inflation data, where precious metal prices are expected to fluctuate. In the medium to long term, risks in US federal government debt persist, the US dollar's dominance is challenged, under global currency system restructuring, gold will continue to perform well. Industrial metals: Waiting for demand recovery during the peak season, and positive macroeconomic factors to boost prices. On the macroeconomic front, recent data from the US showed labor market weakness, leading to a higher probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September and a turning point in liquidity. Meanwhile, China's August manufacturing PMI index increased by 0.1% to 49.4%, showing slight improvement in business sentiment. Subsequent positive macroeconomic policies are expected to continue to support demand expectations and provide upward momentum for industrial metal prices. Additionally, we are currently transitioning between the slack and peak seasons, with downstream processing rates of major industrial metals increasing and some supply-side disruptions due to maintenance and seasonal factors. The supply-demand situation is marginally improving, providing support for prices. Risk warning: Weaker-than-expected downstream demand, large supply releases, Federal Reserve rate cut process falling short of expectations, etc.