Will oil prices be under pressure again? It is rumored that Saudi Arabia is seeking to accelerate its production increase plan to regain market share.

date
05/09/2025
avatar
GMT Eight
Saudi Arabia hopes OPEC+ will accelerate the implementation of the next round of oil production increase plans.
According to sources familiar with the matter, leaders of the OPEC+ organization, led by Saudi Arabia, are hoping to consider restoring more oil production before the scheduled meeting next year in an attempt to regain market share. The main alliance members will hold a video conference on Sunday to discuss how to deal with the daily 1.66 million barrels of supply cut. Over the past five months, they have quickly restored previous supply levels. No decision has been made yet, and it is not clear whether any agreement to increase production will be reached on Sunday or in the following months. Some sources say that Saudi Arabia is pushing for a faster restart of production in order to regain global market share. The country hopes to increase production further to offset the impact of falling oil prices. Any proposal to increase production could face opposition from other member countries who prefer higher oil prices. They added that there are still various options available, such as temporarily halting production expansion for a period of time. The OPEC+ alliance is jointly led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Representatives of the organization stated that Saudi Arabia is eager to reclaim sales share previously taken by competitors (such as U.S. shale oil producers). Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is set to visit Washington in November to meet with President Trump, who has called for lower fuel prices. Livia Gallarati, global head of crude oil at energy analysis firm Energy Aspects, said: "The latest information we are getting from the organization indicates that they are actively considering lifting that batch of suspended crude supply as soon as possible." An increase in production by OPEC+ could lead to surplus levels in the fourth quarter exceeding the expectations of organizations like the International Energy Agency (IEA), further increasing the pressure on oil prices. However, the market has not collapsed since the organization began restoring its 2.2 million barrels per day of production cut, although some are concerned about the market's ability to absorb this additional oil supply. While the extra supply is good for consumers and a victory for Trump, it poses a financial threat to the U.S. shale oil industry and producers from OPEC+ member countries. This move will highlight OPEC+'s shift towards protecting market share rather than controlling prices. This will put immense pressure on member countries that need higher oil prices, especially those unable to increase production. Most oil traders surveyed this week originally expected that the OPEC+ organization would pause action before taking any further production increase measures as the global market has already experienced oversupply this year. However, there have been reports suggesting the possibility of increasing production afterwards. Brent crude futures have fallen by about 10% this year, trading around $67 per barrel in London on Friday. Goldman Sachs predicts in a report that due to the oversupply situation in the market, Brent crude prices will fall to around $50 per barrel next year. Trump has called for lower prices to alleviate cost of living pressures and curb inflation, but he also pressures the Fed to lower interest rates. Trump also stated that lower oil prices will help him exert pressure on Russia to stop its war in Ukraine. The meeting on Sunday is one of OPEC+'s monthly routine meetings aimed at reviewing the oil market situation and the implementation of existing supply restrictions.