The US stock market had a "black September"! Technology stocks and long-term bonds fell, while gold and the US dollar rose simultaneously.
Wall Street is once again worried about the tech stock bubble and the inflated government budget.
After the holiday, Wall Street once again expressed concerns about the tech stock bubble and government budget expansion. Global bond markets are generally falling, and the price of gold has reached a historical high. Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 1.3% on Tuesday, further exacerbating the sell-off caused by tech stocks last week. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) led the decline among the seven major tech stocks, falling 2.7% in pre-market trading. S&P 500 index futures fell 1%. The US dollar saw its biggest rise since July, poised for its first increase in six days.
The yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds climbed by 6 basis points to 4.99%, while the yield on UK 30-year bonds reached its highest level since 1998. The UK raised a record 14 billion through the issuance of 10-year bonds, with its growing budget deficit becoming a focus. The pound fell by over 1.3%.
Long-term bonds typically perform poorly in September.
The yield on French long-term bonds also surged to its highest level since 2009. French Prime Minister Franois Beru is likely to lose a vote of confidence next week as the opposition expresses disagreement with the government's spending cuts.
Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor of Allianz and former CEO of The Pacific Investment Management Company, said, "Yields on developed countries' long-term bonds continue to rise, with the situation in the UK particularly apparent, as its currency is relatively weak similar to typical situations in developing countries."
David Zahn, European Head of Fixed Income at Franklin Templeton, said, "I expect the long end of the yield curve to continue rising, as we have huge fiscal deficits to fill."
The record rally in the stock market this year is entering a crucial stage, as the market awaits whether the Fed's expected rate cut in 2025 will materialize this month, and whether further rate cuts are still expected. Tariff tensions and President Trump's increased pressure on the Fed to stimulate inflation have added to market pressures.
A series of data will be released this week, starting with the US August Manufacturing PMI data to be released tonight. The non-farm payroll report expected to be released on Friday is expected to show job growth below 100,000 for the fourth consecutive month, the weakest period since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020.
Currently, swap trading implies a 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed later this month, with three more expected by June next year.
On Tuesday, the Volatility Index (VIX) rose by 15.5% to a intraday high of 18.65, the highest level since August 5th. The surge in volatility reflects heightened investor anxiety, as markets readjust after a US appeals court ruling last Friday overturned most of the tariffs imposed during Trump's term.
Andrea Tueni, Head of Sales Trading at BNP Paribas in France, said, "As key US inflation and labor market data approaches, the market is generally cautious. This indicates that caution will be needed in the future."
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