The US second-quarter GDP growth rate has been revised up to 3.3%, with business investment and trade serving as the main drivers.

The second revised data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on Thursday showed that the US real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.3% in the second quarter, slightly higher than the initial 3%. This growth was mainly driven by a resurgence in business investment and strong trade performance, reflecting the economy stabilizing after fluctuations in the first quarter. Business investment became an important support, continuing to grow by 5.7% in the second quarter after a surge in the first quarter, significantly higher than the initial 1.9%. The upward adjustment in transportation equipment investment and intellectual property product investment led to the strongest growth in four years, becoming key factors driving the revision. In the previous quarter, due to businesses accelerating imports before tariff adjustments, the GDP shrank for the first time since 2022, but the current data indicates that the economy is adapting to the new trade policy environment. Gross Domestic Income (GDI) as another core indicator of economic activity, surged by 4.8% in the second quarter, far exceeding the slight increase of 0.2% in the first quarter. The difference between GDI and GDP is that the former focuses on income and costs in the production process, while the latter measures the value of final goods and services. The data from both indicators confirm the increase in economic activity. Corporate profits also performed well, growing by 1.7% in the second quarter, reversing the largest decline since 2020 in the first quarter. The proportion of after-tax profits of non-financial corporations to total value-added remained at 15.7%, much higher than the average level from the 1950s to before the pandemic, indicating that businesses still have strong pricing power. However, how tariff costs are passed on becomes a key variable - if businesses choose to raise prices instead of absorbing the costs, it may exacerbate inflationary pressure. Trade performance became the biggest highlight, with net exports contributing nearly 5 percentage points to GDP, reaching a historical high. Behind this data is a special calculation logic: goods and services produced outside the US are included in GDP when consumed, but production costs need to be deducted from the total amount. Trade dragged on the economy in the first quarter, but then reversed in the second quarter. Consumer spending showed a moderate recovery, with a 1.6% increase in the second quarter, higher than the initial 1.4%, but still below the long-term trend. Consumer spending growth hit a post-pandemic low in the first quarter, but the current data indicates that household demand is slowly recovering. The more focused "final sales" indicator (excluding trade and inventory fluctuations) increased by 1.9%, indicating that the domestic demand foundation still needs to be strengthened. Retail attitudes are showing subtle variations. Walmart raised its full-year sales forecast, stating that consumer shopping habits have not shown significant changes; Home Depot executives emphasized the health of customer finances; Target's sales, although still declining year-on-year, were better than market expectations. However, there is widespread concern in the industry that current sales data may not fully reflect the impact of tariffs - many goods in the second quarter were imported before tariffs took effect, so the effects of cost pass-through may gradually appear in the future. Fitch Ratings pointed out that tariffs combined with market uncertainty may dampen consumer confidence and raise inflation expectations. It is worth mentioning that the core PCE index, which the Federal Reserve focuses on, rose by 2.5% in the second quarter, remaining unchanged from the initial value. July PCE data will be released on Friday, providing the latest clues for the third quarter economic trend. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated at the Jackson Hole conference that the impact of tariffs on prices has already "appeared," but considering risks in the labor market, there is still room for a rate cut in September. The concurrent release of unemployment benefit data showed a decrease in the number of continuing claims for the week ending August 16, adding positive signals for the August non-farm data to be released next week. Overall, the US economy has shown resilience driven by trade and investment, but uncertainties in tariff policies, inflation stickiness, and the sustainability of consumer momentum still need to be observed. The Federal Reserve will continue to cautiously adjust its policy path in balancing growth and inflation risks.