U.S. Import Tariff Windfall Poised to Hit Trillion-Dollar Mark

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that his earlier projection of $300 billion in import tax revenue now appears to be too modest. He emphasized that revenues in August surged compared to July, and he expects September’s figures to rise even more sharply. According to his estimate, total revenues could exceed $500 billion and potentially move toward $1 trillion.

Bessent argued that this additional revenue will significantly offset the budget deficit, which had been worsened by previously approved spending packages and tax cuts. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has projected that current legislation would increase the federal deficit by around $3.4 trillion over the next decade, but higher import tax revenues are expected to ease that burden.

Data from U.S. Customs showed that import tax collections in July rose nearly $21 billion year-on-year to $28 billion. Beginning in August, Washington raised tariffs on most trading partners, with rates ranging from 10% to 50%. The U.S. Treasury Department also reported that as of August 22, revenues from customs duties and excise taxes had already reached $29.6 billion in August, matching the total for all of July.

Last week, the CBO revised its forecast upward, estimating that import duties could help cut the deficit by $4 trillion over the next decade, compared to its $3 trillion forecast in June. Bessent noted that this figure could climb even higher.

In an interview with CNBC on August 19, Bessent stated that the government intends to use import tax revenues to reduce the national debt, emphasizing that debt reduction remains the administration’s primary focus. Some lawmakers, however, had earlier proposed distributing part of this revenue directly to citizens, with at least $600 per adult and child.

Still, higher tariffs have increased prices on essential goods. The U.S. imports significant volumes of apparel and footwear from China, Vietnam, and Cambodia, with tariff rates between 19% and 30%. The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that footwear prices climbed 1.4% and clothing prices increased 0.1%. Rising costs of necessities, combined with economic uncertainty, have led many American households, especially low-income families, to reduce spending.