"The Trump-Putin meeting was "productive"? Wall Street doesn't see it that way"

The highly anticipated US-Russia summit ultimately failed to reach any specific agreement on the Ukraine conflict, disappointing investors hoping for a breakthrough in the geopolitical tensions. However, the summit also did not bring about new sanctions, providing some certainty to the market with a "maintain the status quo" result. Investors are now attempting to reassess risks amidst the complex signals and looking for trading opportunities in specific sectors such as energy and precious metals. According to CCTV News, on Friday, US President Trump and Russian President Putin held a nearly three-hour meeting in Alaska. Although both sides described the dialogue as "productive," they did not reveal any substantive progress during the subsequent brief media briefing and refused to answer questions from reporters on the scene, contrasting sharply with Trump's usually talkative style. Against the backdrop of "pursuing peace," Trump said in front of a backdrop board, "We have reached consensus on many, many issues. I want to say, there are a few big issues we haven't completely solved yet, but we have made some progress." However, this vague statement did not ease external doubts but instead fueled speculation about the real outcome of the talks. For the market, this result is mixed. On the one hand, the lack of a breakthrough in the peace process means that geopolitical risks will continue to exist; on the other hand, the alert on sanctions has been temporarily lifted, giving the market some relief. Investors quickly shifted their focus from the summit itself to its impact on specific asset classes and macroeconomic fundamentals. No agreement, no new sanctions For investors, the most direct result of this summit is that "no news is good news." Despite failing to reach a peace agreement, the new round of economic sanctions that the market is concerned about did not materialize. "Not announcing economic sanctions is a positive factor, and the market should breathe a sigh of relief, although it seems that an agreement has not been reached yet," said Eric Teal, Chief Investment Officer of Comerica. He believes that since the prospect of sanctions on Russian oil has not materialized, there may be opportunities in the energy sector. He added, "There may be a round of relieving rebound, as we enter the seasonally strong demand season and economic growth begins to accelerate again, which will be an opportunity for investment in the energy sector." At the same time, some analysts point out that the easing of risk aversion may pose short-term pressure on gold and other precious metals. But Eric Teal believes that considering concerns about inflation, any weakness in gold prices may be seen as "a very good buying opportunity." Market response is tepid, focusing on macro fundamentals Overall, the financial markets' response to the summit results is relatively tepid, as after three years of conflict, investors have largely priced in the geopolitical deadlock. Tom Di Galoma, Managing Director of Mischler Financial, said, "Overall, the market will slightly like this news, as I believe they have made some progress. But I don't think Dow Jones futures will rise 400 points on Sunday evening." "So far, the war has been going on for three years, so it (the summit results) really shouldn't have much impact. I think the market will see it as maintaining the current situation," commented Michael Ashley Schulman, Chief Investment Officer of Running Point. Another analyst expressed a similar view: "The only news is that there is no news at all. Geopolitical issues usually do not hold the market's attention for long." Comments point out that investors are still firmly focused on core economic data. "Although this conflict has lasted for three years, the market is still at new highs. The market is more concerned about consumer, inflation, and the comments next week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming (Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium)." Paving the way for the future? Some investors still hold hope Despite the lack of specific outcomes, some market participants believe that this meeting itself is a positive step and may lay the groundwork for future negotiations. Eugene Epstein, Head of North America Trading and Structured Products at Moneycorp, said, "I don't think anyone expected it to be particularly specific or substantive. This is essentially the first step towards possibly more important things." He believes the meeting shows that both sides "are willing to continue talks to reach a conclusion that is beneficial to all parties." Tom Di Galoma, Director of Rates and Trading at Mischler Financial, is more optimistic, believing that both sides "laid the foundation for an agreement" and predicts that an agreement could be reached within the next 30 days, with the next step potentially being a trilateral meeting between Trump, Putin, and Ukrainian President Zelensky. Doubts linger, on-site atmosphere feels "not good" However, not everyone is optimistic about the future. Many analysts are skeptical of the summit's symbolic significance over substantive content and point out structural barriers to negotiations. "Without Ukraine at the negotiating table, the chances of reaching a peace agreement are slim," said Jamie Cox, Managing Partner at Harris Financial Group. Helima Croft, Global Head of Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, also stated that the summit's results are just "the mantra of releasing diplomatic progress signals but lacking specific agreement details," which is far from convincing European allies to consider lifting their energy sanctions on Russia. More importantly, according to Fox News reporter Jacqui Heinrich's on-site report, the atmosphere at the summit was not as optimistic as the official statements. She described, "The atmosphere in the room is not good. It seems that things are not going smoothly. It feels like Putin walked in, bullish, went straight to the topic he wanted to talk about, took a photo next to the president, and then left." This observation adds more uncertainty to the summit's results and keeps the world vigilant about the future direction of US-Russia relations. This article is reprinted from "Wall Street See News," author: Pan Lingfei, GMTEight Editor: Wei Haoming.