Guolian Minsheng Securities: China's ship leasing industry continues to increase its global market share and is optimistic about the future development of ship leasing companies.

Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that in the first half of 2025, China's ship completions totaled 24.13 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%, with a global market share of 51.7%. The new order volume reached 44.33 million deadweight tons, accounting for 68.3% of the global market share. Overall, the development of China's ship leasing industry is stable, with a steady expansion in scale and a continuous increase in global market share. The future prospects of the ship leasing industry remain good due to the green transformation and replacement of old ships, which can effectively support the expansion speed, along with future interest rate reductions. Key points from Guolian Minsheng Securities: Existing capacity: China's leasing fleet size is steadily expanding, with a continuous increase in global market share. As of the end of June 2025, China's leasing fleet's total deadweight tonnage reached 159 million tons, an increase of 4.55% from the beginning of the year. The total tonnage of orders on hand reached 21 million tons, an increase of 9.42% from the beginning of the year. Bulk carriers, container ships, and gas carriers account for a high proportion. While the scale of China's leasing fleet is expanding, its global market share continues to increase. Currently, China's leasing fleet accounts for 9.30% of the global fleet, an increase of 0.2% from the end of 2024, driven mainly by bulk carriers and gas carriers. Increment: Slowdown in new deliveries and expirations In terms of new deliveries, in the first half of 2025, China's leasing companies added a total of 9.4 million tons of new ship leasing tonnage, only 35.7% of the total increase in 2024, mainly impacted by the "301 investigation". Among the new deliveries, new ships and second-hand ships accounted for 39% and 61% respectively, with the proportion of second-hand ships increasing by 8.8% from 2024. The proportion of operating leases among the new deliveries increased, with operating leases accounting for 71.7% and 28.3% of new deliveries in the first half of 2025, an increase of 11.6% from 2024. In terms of expirations, the total tonnage of expiring ships in the first half of 2025 was 5.4 million tons, only 30.34% of the total expiring volume in 2024. Green transformation: Increased proportion of energy-efficient vessels As of the end of June 2025, the proportion of energy-efficient vessels in China's leasing fleet was 80%, an increase of 1% from the end of 2024. Looking at different types of vessels, the proportion of energy-efficient vessels in tankers and passenger/cruise ships increased significantly, with energy-efficient vessels accounting for 77% and 90% respectively at the end of June 2025, an increase of 3% and 5% from the end of 2024. Globally, as of the end of June 2025, the proportion of energy-efficient vessels in the global fleet was 51%, an increase of 1% from the end of 2024, with slight increases in the proportion of energy-efficient vessels in bulk carriers, tankers, gas carriers, and other vessel types. Vessel age: Increased proportion of older vessels In terms of existing capacity, as of the end of H1 2025, vessels aged 15 years and older accounted for 10.1% of the total tonnage, an increase of 1.5% from the end of 2024. Correspondingly, vessels aged 0-4 years and 5-9 years accounted for 44.7% and 25.5% respectively, with decreases of 0.9% and 0.6% from the end of 2024. In terms of incremental capacity, in the first half of 2025, the proportion of vessels aged 15 years and older in newly financed leasing vessels was 18.2%, an increase of 7.3% from the end of 2024; the proportion of vessels aged 15 years and older in newly operating leasing vessels was 7.7%, with almost no vessels older than 15 years in 2024. Risk warning: Uncertainty in tariff policies, geopolitical conflicts, and risks of declining rents.