Supply and demand gap emerges: OPEC raises forecasts for oil demand next year, cuts forecasts for supply growth of competitors.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised its forecast for global oil demand next year on Tuesday, while lowering expectations for supply growth from the United States and other non-OPEC+ oil producing countries, indicating a tightening market supply outlook. The OPEC+ alliance, consisting of OPEC and allies such as Russia, stated that improving demand prospects and slower non-OPEC+ supply growth would help the alliance move forward with its production increase plans. After years of supporting the market by cutting production, OPEC+ is now seeking to regain market share by increasing output. According to OPEC's monthly report, global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, an upward revision of 100,000 barrels per day from previous forecasts, while expectations for demand this year remain unchanged. The report also slightly raised the global economic growth outlook for this year to 3.0%, citing trade agreements signed by the Trump administration in the United States, as well as better-than-expected economic performance in India, China, and Brazil. The report said, "Economic data in the first half of 2025 further confirmed the resilience of global economic growth, despite ongoing uncertainties posed by the U.S.-centered trade tensions and broader geopolitical risks." The organization stated that non-"Declaration of Cooperation" countries (the formal name for OPEC+) are expected to increase oil supply by around 630,000 barrels per day in 2026, lower than the previous month's forecast of 730,000 barrels per day. In recent years, rapid growth in U.S. shale oil and other countries has put pressure on oil prices, with OPEC+ sources saying that part of the alliance's decision to increase production this year is in response to the growth in U.S. shale oil production. The OPEC report noted that U.S. tight oil (another term for shale oil) production in 2026 is now expected to decrease by 100,000 barrels per day, compared to the previous forecast of remaining flat. OPEC stated: "The 2026 forecast is based on continued capital discipline, further improvements in drilling and completion efficiencies, a slowdown in drilling activity, and increased associated gas production in major shale oil producing areas." The OPEC report also indicated that in July, OPEC+ crude oil production increased by 335,000 barrels per day, further reflecting the alliance's decision to raise production quotas this year.