GGII: Lithium salt prices continue to adjust, and it is expected that 2026H2 will enter a new round of price increase cycle.

The GGII Lithium Battery Research Institute predicts that in the second half of 2025, the average price of lithium carbonate is expected to remain around 80,000 yuan/ton, with a peak potentially reaching 85,000 yuan/ton, or even 90,000 yuan/ton. The core reason for the price rebound is based on the gradual easing of the supply-demand imbalance situation. In the first half of 2022-2025, due to rapid increase in supply, lithium salt prices plummeted significantly, from over 600,000 yuan/ton at the end of 2022 to 60,000 yuan/ton in June 2025, a decrease of over 90%. In July 2025, due to central governance pushing for an end to low-price disorderly competition and the impact of some enterprises suspending lithium carbonate production, the current price has risen close to 70,000 yuan/ton, an increase of over 10% from the lowest point in June. Annual prices and forecasts for battery-grade lithium carbonate and battery-grade lithium hydroxide in China from 2019 to 2027 (thousands of yuan/ton) Data Source: GGII Lithium Battery Research Institute, July 2025 From the demand side, driven by the unexpectedly strong growth in demand in the energy storage market in 2025, global demand for lithium carbonate for lithium batteries is expected to continue to grow rapidly. GGII predicts that global lithium battery demand for lithium will increase by approximately 350,000 tons of LCE in 2025, with a growth rate of over 30%. It is estimated that in 2026, global lithium battery demand for lithium will reach 1.86 million tons, with an increase of approximately 370,000 tons in global lithium battery demand for lithium, mainly due to the increased demand for lithium salts by lithium iron phosphate cathode materials. Demand for lithium in downstream markets is expected to continue to grow rapidly. Global demand for lithium batteries from 2023 to 2027 (thousands of tons, LCE) Data Source: GGII Lithium Battery Research Institute, July 2025 From the supply side, in 2025, global lithium mine supply will increase by 320,000 tons to reach 1.65 million tons. The main new supplies are overseas lithium-bearing minerals and overseas salt lakes, with increases of 120,000 tons and 90,000 tons respectively. Starting from 2024, due to low lithium salt prices, large-scale delays in lithium mine projects, the growth rate of lithium mine supply has fallen significantly below the planned expansion capacity of lithium mine enterprises and slower than the market demand growth rate. Global lithium resource supply and forecasts from 2022 to 2027 (thousands of tons, LCE) Data Source: GGII Lithium Battery Research Institute, July 2025 GGII predicts that in the second half of 2026, lithium salts are expected to enter a new round of price increases. The main reasons are: 1) After 3 years of low lithium salt prices, the expansion speed of lithium mine production has significantly slowed down; 2) National anti-redundancy governance has reduced disorderly capacity expansion; 3) Major lithium-producing areas in China such as Jiangxi and Qinghai strengthen the regulation of lithium mines; 4) Overseas demand for lithium batteries is expected to experience rapid growth in 2026-2027. Global lithium supply and demand gap from 2021 to 2027 (thousands of tons, LCE) Data Source: GGII Lithium Battery Research Institute, July 2025