UBS lowers oil price forecast: Brent may fall to $62 per barrel by the end of 2025, with increased supply being the main reason.
UBS lowered its forecast for international oil prices, expecting Brent crude prices to remain near the upper limit of $60 to $70 per barrel range, with a possibility of reaching the lower limit later this year.
UBS released a report on Monday lowering its forecast for international oil prices, expecting Brent crude prices to remain near the upper limit of $60 to $70 per barrel range, with the possibility of reaching the lower limit later this year. According to the latest adjustments, the institution predicts that by the end of 2025 and March 2026, oil prices will drop to $62 per barrel, a $6 decrease from the previous forecast of $68 per barrel; they are expected to rise to $65 per barrel by mid-2026, maintaining that price level in the second half of the year. During the same period, the price difference between WTI crude and Brent crude is expected to narrow from $4 per barrel to $3 per barrel.
UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo pointed out that this forecast adjustment is mainly based on two factors: the continued growth of oil supply in South America (such as Brazil and Guyana) and the production performance of countries like Iran, Venezuela, and Russia, which are under international sanctions, exceeding expectations and not showing the significant decline that was previously feared. In addition, the recent lack of growth in oil demand in India has also become an important factor influencing price judgments.
The report specifically mentioned that unless there is a prolonged unexpected supply disruption on a global scale, the OPEC+ organization may pause further adjustments to production policies. It is worth noting that UBS holds a relatively optimistic view on oil prices in mid-2026 and the second half of the year, believing that the market supply-demand dynamics will improve by then.
As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil futures prices have risen by 0.44% to $64.16 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures have increased by 0.42% to $66.87 per barrel. Despite the slight rebound in oil prices intraday, concerns about global economic growth caused by OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September and US tariff policies led to the largest weekly drop in oil futures since June last week, with prices closing mostly flat last Friday.
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