AI disrupts the employment landscape: Google and Microsoft generate 30% of their code through AI. Goldman Sachs warns that 6-7% of jobs may permanently disappear.

Economists from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. point out that the impact of generative artificial intelligence on the US labor market has begun to show signs in employment data. Joseph Briggs, senior global economist at the institution, said that although most companies have not yet applied AI technology in actual production scenarios, the technology industry has already seen a shift in recruitment patterns, with young tech workers being the first group affected. Briggs' analysis shows that the employment trend in the technology industry has shown a continuous linear growth over the past two decades, but in the last three years, the recruitment scale has been significantly lower than expected. Since the release of ChatGPT in November 2022, generative AI has not only led to the soaring market value of tech giants like NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US), but also has had an impact on fields such as software engineering through automation of routine tasks. Some experts believe that current AI models already have coding capabilities comparable to human engineers, sparking concerns in the market about restructuring of employment structures - while automation can improve corporate efficiency and shareholder returns, it may disrupt traditional employment patterns in the coming years. Recent statements from technology executives about the impact of AI on employees have become more direct. Companies like Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US) and Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US) have disclosed that AI now accounts for about 30% of coding work; Salesforce, Inc. (CRM.US) CEO Marc Benioff even revealed that half of their company's work is done by AI. Briggs emphasized that young tech positions are the most vulnerable to automation, a trend already evident in employment data: this year, the unemployment rate for tech workers aged 20-30 is 3% higher than the industry average, with a significant increase compared to other age groups. A joint report from the global investment research department of Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. and IPUMS titled "Quantifying the Risk of Job Loss Related to Artificial Intelligence" reveals the quantitative basis for this trend. George Lee, co-director of the institution's global research institute and former technology banker, pointed out that tech companies commonly adopt a "pause in hiring junior positions" strategy in the early stages of AI deployment to improve flexibility through streamlining staff structures. While this adjustment may not directly result in layoffs, it makes young employees the "transitional sacrifices" for technological upgrades. According to estimates by Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., approximately 6-7% of jobs may disappear due to AI automation in the long term. However, Briggs warns that if the pace of technological diffusion exceeds the expected ten-year cycle, or if an economic downturn forces companies to accelerate cost-cutting, the job market will face more intense transformation pains. Of particular interest is the potential breakthrough of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) - when AI possesses cross-domain learning and adaptive capabilities, its potential for replacing labor will far exceed the current narrow application scenarios, leading to unpredictable disruptive impacts on the job market. Currently, all analyses do not include AGI variables, and this technological leap may completely rewrite the basic logic of labor demand.