Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for Brent oil prices unchanged but warns of downside risks to demand.

Goldman Sachs reiterated its forecast for oil prices on Sunday, predicting that the average price of Brent crude oil will be $64 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $56 per barrel in 2026. However, due to recent developments, the baseline forecast faces increased risks. Goldman Sachs also issued a warning about oil demand. In a report on August 3, Goldman Sachs stated, "The increasing pressure on oil supply from Russia and Iran sanctions poses upside risks to our price forecasts, especially considering the faster-than-expected recovery of idle capacity." However, Goldman Sachs also mentioned that the increased threat of higher U.S. tariff rates and additional tariffs, as well as weak U.S. economic activity data, pose downside risks to its forecasted average annual demand growth of 800,000 barrels per day for 2025-2026. The report stated that the weaker data "indicates that the current pace of U.S. economic growth is below potential speed," and Goldman Sachs economists believe this increases the likelihood of an economic recession in the next 12 months. OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, the most recent production move aimed at regaining market share. Goldman Sachs said, "Although OPEC+'s policy remains flexible, we believe that OPEC+ will maintain its production quotas unchanged after September, as we expect the rate of increase in commercial inventories of the OECD to accelerate and the drive of seasonal demand to weaken." Goldman Sachs analysts said, "Given Russia's significant trading volume, the potential for further price discounts to maintain demand, and the continued enthusiasm of major buyers China and India, we still believe the risk of a large-scale disruption in Russian supply is limited." According to industry sources, Indian state-owned refineries have stopped buying oil from Russia in the past week, as the discount on Russian oil has narrowed this month and U.S. President Donald Trump has warned countries not to purchase oil from Russia. At the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose by 0.22% to $67.48 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.07% to $69.72 per barrel.