Huajin Securities: A-shares may have started a comprehensive slow bull trend. In the short term, it is recommended to continue to allocate technology-related CKH HOLDINGS cyclicals on dips.

date
02/08/2025
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GMT Eight
Compared with the historical experience of a comprehensive slow bull market in the U.S. stock market, the current A-shares have already met the conditions to start a comprehensive slow bull market. Firstly, the fundamentals of China's economy and earnings are continuing to recover. Secondly, the scale and rate of dividends in the current A-shares are continuously increasing. Thirdly, the current liquidity remains loose. In the short term, A-shares are expected to continue the trend of a strong slow bull market, and any adjustments present opportunities to buy on dips.
Huajin Securities released a research report stating that, comparing with the historical experience of a sustained bull market in the US stock market, the A-share market in China now has the conditions to start a sustained bull market. Firstly, the fundamentals of China's economy and profits are continuously improving. Secondly, the scale and payout ratio of dividends in the A-share market are continuously increasing. Thirdly, the current liquidity remains loose. In the short term, the A-share market is expected to continue its trend of strong but volatile bull market, with adjustments presenting buying opportunities. In terms of industry allocation, Huajin Securities recommends continuing to buy technology and cyclical stocks at a low point in the short term. Strategies like dumbbell strategy may result in limited excess returns in the short term. Technology and cyclicals may have a comparative advantage in the short term. Huajin Securities' main points are as follows: The sustained bull market in the US is mainly driven by strong fundamentals, high dividends, and loose liquidity. Strong fundamentals are the basis for the sustained bull market in the US. High dividends are also a core driving factor for the long-term bull market in the US. Loose liquidity and low inflation also play a role in driving the sustained bull market in the US. The core factors driving the emergence of a sustained bull market in the A-share market are sentiment, low valuations, positive policy measures, and loose liquidity. Market sentiment and low valuations are among the conditions for a sustained bull market in the A-share market. Positive policy measures, such as reforms and stimulus packages, also contribute to the sustained bull market. Loose liquidity is essential as well. The structural bull market in the A-share market is mainly driven by economic recovery, positive policies, and loose liquidity. Weak economic recovery and loose liquidity are factors driving the structural bull market in the A-share market. Positive policies and external events, such as reforms and trade agreements, play a significant role as well. Currently, the A-share market may have started a sustained bull market trend. Comparing with the historical experience of a sustained bull market in the US, the A-share market now has the conditions for a sustained bull market: China's economy and profits are continuously improving, dividends are increasing, and liquidity remains loose. Short-term adjustments in the A-share market present buying opportunities. In the short term, economic expectations may decline, but in the medium term, economic recovery is expected to continue. Loose liquidity is expected to be maintained in the short term. Policy measures are still relatively positive in the short term, with limited external risks. The risk appetite in the A-share market may remain relatively high. In terms of industry allocation, it is recommended to continue buying technology and cyclical stocks at a low point in the short term. Industries that may benefit from anti-internal competition policies and potential improvements include electronics, non-ferrous metals, express delivery, and chemical industries. Risk factors include the uncertainty of applying historical experience to the future, unexpected policy changes, and economic recovery falling short of expectations.