EB SECURITIES: Stablecoins drive the popularity of RMB global payments, third-party payment companies may continue to benefit.

EB SECURITIES released a research report stating that the global retail cross-border payment market is expected to reach $39.9 trillion in 2024. According to FXC Intelligence forecasts, this figure will increase to $64.5 trillion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.2% from 2024 to 2032. In terms of scenario contribution structure: B2B payments account for 79% market share; e-commerce payments account for 5%; service payments account for 11%; and C2C payments account for 5%. It is worth noting that in Renminbi cross-border settlement, multi-currency settlement and other business levels, third-party payment institutions have deeply embedded themselves in the payment ecosystem, playing an important role. It is expected that stable coins will drive global expansion of Renminbi cross-border payment infrastructure and diversification of application scenarios, thereby offering growth opportunities for third-party payment companies. Key points from EB SECURITIES are as follows: Stable coins are expected to drive Renminbi internationalization From 2015 to 2024, under the multi-dimensional strategic promotion of central bank cross-border trade settlement pilots, currency swap agreements, and other factors, Renminbi internationalization has made significant breakthroughs: according to SWIFT monitoring data, its global payment share increased from about 2% in December 2015 to about 4% in December 2024, and cross-border payment volume increased from 12 trillion yuan to 64 trillion yuan. However, structural constraints such as capital account control, limited offshore application scenarios, and geopolitical barriers have led to a slowing momentum of growth. In this context, stable coins, with their decentralized architecture, offshore free circulation characteristics, and technological compensation capabilities, are expected to form a synergistic effect through the DIGIHUMAN Renminbi (e-CNY) and the multilateral central bank digital currency bridge project (mBridge). This will jointly build an internationalization strategic system where "traditional currency and digital currency run in parallel", potentially breaking through existing liquidity bottlenecks and driving the acceleration of Renminbi international usage. By 2024, the global cross-border payment market is estimated to be around $200 trillion, with a CAGR of over 6% from 2024 to 2032 and steady growth in Renminbi global payment volume The global cross-border payment market continues to expand steadily, with total transaction volume reaching $194.6 trillion in 2024 and a compound annual growth rate of about 9% from 2019 to 2024. According to FXC Intelligence forecasts, the market size is expected to reach $320 trillion by 2032, with a future compound annual growth rate of 6.4% over the next 8 years. Currently, the Renminbi is the world's fourth most active currency, just behind the US dollar, euro, and pound, which does not match the status of China as the world's second-largest economy. Combining upgrades to cross-border clearing systems, expansion of offshore markets, and strategic collaboration with innovative tools such as stable coins, the Renminbi's share of payments has significant potential for improvement. As Renminbi cross-border payment volume increases, third-party payment institutions are presented with development opportunities In 2024, the global retail cross-border payment market is estimated to reach $39.9 trillion, and FXC Intelligence predicts that this figure will increase to $64.5 trillion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.2% from 2024 to 2032. In terms of scenario contribution structure: B2B payments dominate, contributing 79% market share; e-commerce payments account for 5%; service payments account for 11%; and C2C payments account for 5%. It is worth noting that in Renminbi cross-border settlement, multi-currency settlement and other business levels, third-party payment institutions have deeply embedded themselves in the payment ecosystem, playing an important role. It is expected that stable coins will drive global expansion of Renminbi cross-border payment infrastructure and diversification of application scenarios, offering growth opportunities for third-party payment companies. Risk warning: policy implementation falling short of expectations; regulatory compliance risks; technological substitution risks.