J.P. Morgan Washington Policy Report: "Stagnation" becomes new keyword, global situation hides these variables

J.P. Morgan recently held a closed-door meeting in Washington DC with policy makers, government advisors, and think tank experts, focusing on the priority areas of US policy. The current US strategy revolves around tariffs, AI technology, and supply chain restructuring, with "stagnation" becoming a common keyword to describe economic, market, and geopolitical conflicts. The report also mentions that after the passage of the Genius Act, stable coins will be strictly regulated to reduce run risk, while also promoting cross-border trade settled in US dollars, reinforcing the dollar's dominant position. The report emphasizes that "time is the ultimate judge," and for investors, "waiting and watching" may be the most rational choice. The key points of J.P. Morgan's Washington DC policy report include: 1. Nine key policy points: From tariffs to AI, the core direction of US strategy - OBBBA Act: The game of static and dynamic scoring - Tariffs: Rising towards the 20%-25% range due to upcoming industry tariff measures - Global imbalances returning, deficits hard to reduce - Treasury financing: Rebuilding TGA and maintaining the US dollar's status - Expansion of executive power and weakening of Congresss role - Succession of the Federal Reserve chair: Powells fate tied to private relationships - Deregulation: Slow progress with lingering differences - Geopolitical conflicts: Unsolved but not out of control - Cryptocurrency legislation: Genius Act passed, two others facing obstacles 2. "Stagnation" as a new keyword: Common state of economy, market, and conflict - Economic and market "stagnation zone": S&P 500, US bond trading ranges narrowed, labor and housing markets at a standstill - Geopolitical "tug-of-war": Unresolved conflicts in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine, but regime change no longer a target - Policy "delayed response": Economic impact of tariffs delayed, investors in wait-and-see mode 3. Regulation and finance: Deep adjustments from cryptocurrency to energy policy - Relaxation of regulation prioritizing energy - Cryptocurrency's "USD defense war" - Federal Reserve's "invisible transformation" 4. Future risks: From tariffs to deficits, these variables deserve caution - Underestimated risk of tariff escalation - Deficits and financing pressures - Geopolitical "black swans" The report concludes by emphasizing that "time is the ultimate judge" and that economic transformation and global supply chain restructuring will take years to manifest their effects. Therefore, for investors, "waiting and watching" may be the most rational choice.