Goldman Sachs: Container imports at the three major ports on the US West Coast increased by 21% month-on-month in June.

Goldman Sachs released a report stating that after the implementation of the 90-day tariff suspension policy in April/May, container import volume at the three major ports on the US West Coast increased by 21% month-on-month in June. However, in July, the situation for ships leaving China for the US may become more complicated; if the recent weekly trends continue, a complex situation of import growth in July may be seen. Consumer spending remains resilient during the peak season, but the intermittent transportation mode has led to relatively low inventory levels during the holiday period, with spot prices rising at the end of the year. Goldman Sachs' report on the three major ports on the US West Coast stated that container import volume increased by 21% month-on-month in June, well above the historical seasonal level of -3% in June (Chart 1); in comparison to a strong base figure of +20% year-on-year in June 2024, import volume dropped by 5% year-on-year (Chart 2), but showed an 18% monthly growth compared to June 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic (Chart 3). Looking back at the lower import growth in May 2025 compared to seasonal levels, this may reflect a decrease in transoceanic import volume around Liberation Day/April 2. The significant growth in June may reflect a rebound in import volume after the implementation of the 90-day tariff suspension policy in April/May. Goldman Sachs' real-time tariff impact tracker shows that after several weeks of continuous growth from June to early July, the situation for ships leaving China for the US may become more complicated by mid-July; therefore, if the recent weekly trends continue, a more complex import growth in July may be observed, followed by a period of slowdown in import growth in August/September. However, Goldman Sachs will continue to monitor the level of transportation volume in the fluctuating environment, especially considering that consumer spending remains resilient during the peak season. If the intermittent transportation mode leads to relatively low inventory levels during the holiday period and spot prices rise at the end of the year, this may provide additional support for recent upgrades to truck transportation and create a potentially favorable environment for contract renegotiations in the first half of 2026.