ASML Holding NV ADR (ASML.US) financial report shows mixed results, with differing opinions from UBS Group AG and JP Morgan: Is it a cyclical low point or a technological turning point?

ASML Holding NV ADR (ASML.US) delivered a comprehensive answer that exceeded expectations in the second quarter of 2025. Net orders for the quarter reached 5.5 billion euros, up 41% from the previous quarter, flat year-on-year, significantly higher than market consensus. However, due to the sudden cut in growth expectations by the company's management, ASML Holding NV ADR's stock price plummeted, even causing a global decline in chip stocks. Recent research reports from UBS Group AG and JP Morgan analyzed the company's Q2 financial report and future outlook from different perspectives, revealing the resilience and potential risks of this enterprise in the industry's fluctuations. Financial performance: exceeding expectations alongside conservative guidance UBS Group AG reported that ASML Holding NV ADR's Q2 net sales reached 7.7 billion euros, with EBIT exceeding consensus by 12%; net orders were 5.5 billion euros (up 41% year-on-year, flat quarter-on-quarter), with EUV orders accounting for 42%. UBS Group AG pointed out that Q3 EBIT guidance is 11% below consensus, with a 15% increase in full-year net sales, but a possible 5%-10% decrease in EPS for 2026, mainly due to "high macroeconomic uncertainty." ASML Holding NV ADR's Q2 sales were 7.6 billion euros, with a gross margin of 53.7% (exceeding the guided 51.5% and consensus 51.9%), diluted earnings per share (EPS) of 5.9 euros. JP Morgan emphasized that Q2 orders exceeded expectations by 32%, but Q3 sales guidance is 6.8% below consensus, and the midpoint of the gross margin is 51%, which is 39bps lower than consensus, reflecting the dilutive effect of high NA tool income on gross margin. Chinese market: decreasing revenue share but maintaining strategic position Data shows that in Q2, ASML Holding NV ADR's revenue from China declined 3% quarter-on-quarter, 35% year-on-year, accounting for 27% of total sales, but is still expected to exceed 25% for the full year. JP Morgan pointed out that ASML Holding NV ADR's order performance serves as a barometer for the semiconductor equipment industry. Both institutions believe that despite continued political risks from GEO Group Inc., the long-term demand in the Chinese market still supports ASML Holding NV ADR's revenue base. Technological upgrade: high NA tools driving future growth ASML Holding NV ADR confirmed the income from high NA tools (such as NXE:3800s) in Q2, and both UBS Group AG and JP Morgan mentioned the impact of such orders on gross margin. UBS Group AG stated that the income confirmation from high NA tools will dilute the gross margin in the second half of 2025; JP Morgan emphasized that upgrade income (such as NXE:3800s upgrade) had a positive contribution to Q2's gross margin. This contradiction reflects the coexistence of short-term pains and long-term gains in the period of technological iteration. Capital operations: buyback plan demonstrating confidence JP Morgan mentioned that ASML Holding NV ADR repurchased 1.4 billion euros of shares in Q2, while UBS Group AG did not mention any related plans. This difference may be related to the focus of the two institutions: JP Morgan focuses more on shareholder returns, while UBS Group AG focuses on profit expectations adjustments. Outlook for 2026: cautious wording causing market disagreements For the first time, the management team gave a "reserved" attitude towards growth in 2026 at the performance meeting, stating that they are "preparing for growth, but cannot confirm," causing differences in interpretation between the two institutions. UBS Group AG warned that preparations for growth in 2026 face "high macroeconomic uncertainty," which may lead to a decrease in EPS; JP Morgan, on the other hand, believes that ASML Holding NV ADR's high market share and the policy of semiconductor manufacturing returning to the US will offset some cyclical risks. Both parties agree that although the short-term gross margin is diluted by high NA tools, the technological leadership position still provides a foundation for long-term growth. Influenced by the sudden cut in growth expectations by the company's management, ASML Holding NV ADR's stock price plummeted by 8.33% on July 16th, closing at $754.45. Over the past year, the company's stock price has cumulatively plummeted by approximately 34%. Conclusion: cautious optimism amidst stability UBS Group AG and JP Morgan's research reports together outline the current situation of ASML Holding NV ADR: Q2 performance exceeded expectations, but Q3 guidance is conservative; revenue from the Chinese market has declined, but the strategic position remains solid; high NA tools bring short-term gross margin pressure but are crucial for technological upgrades. In the cyclical fluctuations of the semiconductor industry, ASML Holding NV ADR, with its technological barriers and capital operations, is still considered one of the most resilient equipment manufacturers. Investors need to balance short-term fluctuations with long-term value and pay attention to the actual impact of high NA tool income confirmation in the second half of 2025.