World Gold Council: Gold prices may be trapped in a sideways shake in the second half of the year. The potential upward range under stagflation risks may reach 15%.

The World Gold Council pointed out in its mid-year outlook report released on Tuesday that if economists and market participants accurately predict the macroeconomic situation, the price of gold in the second half of this year may remain volatile but with some upward potential. However, historical experience shows that economic performance rarely aligns completely with consensus forecasts. The report analyzed that if the economic and financial environment deteriorates, stagflation pressures intensify, and geopolitical tensions escalate, the demand for safe-haven assets may drive gold prices up by 10%-15%; conversely, if global conflicts are widely and continuously resolved, gold may give back the 12%-17% gains seen so far this year, but this possibility is low in the current environment. Regarding central bank gold purchases, the World Gold Council believes that global central bank demand for gold will remain strong by 2025, although the scale of purchases may decrease from previous record levels to levels significantly higher than the average of 500-600 tons per year before 2022. The report emphasizes: "Pressure related to the US dollar may persist, and discussions about the end of the 'American exceptionalism' may become a focus of investor attention. Overall, these environments make gold a net beneficiary. Although the fundamentals remain strong, some bullish factors have already been reflected in the current gold price." On Tuesday, key US data showed that inflation rose last month as expected, which may indicate that companies have begun passing tariff costs onto consumers, leading to a slight decline in gold futures prices. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, higher than the 2.4% in May and in line with economists' expectations. Generally, gold performs best in a low-interest-rate environment, as it is more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets such as bonds. The main contract for gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange for delivery in July fell by 0.6% to $329.80 per ounce, while the main contract for silver futures for the same delivery period fell by 1.6% to $37.834 per ounce.