Overnight US stocks | The three major indexes are mixed, and the cryptocurrency sector is falling.
As of the close, the Dow fell 436.36 points, or 0.98%, to 44,023.29 points; the Nasdaq rose 37.47 points, or 0.18%, to 20,677.80 points; the S&P 500 index fell 24.80 points, or 0.40%, to 6,243.76 points.
On Tuesday, only the NASDAQ index closed up among the three major indices, while stocks in the cryptocurrency sector fell. According to Fox News, the U.S. House of Representatives plans to vote on the procedural rules related to cryptocurrency legislation at around 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time (5:00 a.m. Beijing time). The president is "angry" and is communicating with lawmakers who are blocking cryptocurrency legislation from entering the House of Representatives. Earlier reports said that the procedural vote on cryptocurrency-related legislation in the House of Representatives failed to pass.
[US Stocks] At the close, the Dow fell 436.36 points, or 0.98%, to 44023.29 points; the Nasdaq rose 37.47 points, or 0.18%, to 20677.80 points; the S&P 500 index fell 24.80 points, or 0.40%, to 6243.76 points. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) rose 4%, hitting a new closing high, AMD (AMD.US) rose 6.4%, Strategy (MSTR.US) fell 1.93%, CRCL (CRCL.US) fell 4.58%, and Mara Holdings (MARA.US) fell 2.34%. The NASDAQ China Golden Dragon Index rose 2.7%, Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR (BABA.US) rose 8.1%.
[European Stocks] The German DAX30 index fell 104.52 points, or 0.43%, to 24061.15 points; the UK FTSE 100 index fell 59.90 points, or 0.67%, to 8938.16 points; the French CAC40 index fell 41.96 points, or 0.54%, to 7766.21 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 16.10 points, or 0.30%, to 5354.75 points; the Spanish IBEX35 index fell 173.69 points, or 1.24%, to 13867.11 points; the Italian FTSE MIB index fell 272.35 points, or 0.68%, to 39914.00 points.
[Asia-Pacific Stock Markets] The Nikkei 225 index fell by 0.55%, the KOSPI index in South Korea rose by 0.41%, and the Indonesian composite index rose by 0.61%.
[Foreign Exchange] The US Dollar Index, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, rose 0.55% on the day to close at 98.616 in the foreign exchange market. At the end of the New York foreign exchange market, 1 euro exchanged for 1.1603 US dollars, lower than the previous trading day's 1.1670 US dollars; 1 pound exchanged for 1.3390 US dollars, lower than the previous trading day's 1.3428 US dollars. 1 US dollar exchanged for 148.85 yen, higher than the previous trading day's 147.76 yen; 1 US dollar exchanged for 0.8018 Swiss francs, higher than the previous trading day's 0.7979 Swiss francs; 1 US dollar exchanged for 1.3716 Canadian dollars, higher than the previous trading day's 1.3700 Canadian dollars; 1 US dollar exchanged for 9.7228 Swedish Krona, higher than the previous trading day's 9.6099 Swedish Krona.
[Crude Oil] NYMEX August light crude futures fell 46 cents to settle at $66.52 per barrel, down 0.69%; September delivery of London Brent crude futures fell 50 cents to settle at $68.71 per barrel, down 0.72%.
[Metal] Spot gold fell by 0.52% to $3325.32 per ounce.
[Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin fell by 1.99% to $117456.9, while Ethereum rose by over 2% to $3080.98.
[Macro News]
U.S. June inflation rose as expected, causing the Federal Reserve to continue to be cautious about interest rate cuts. US June CPI rose, which may indicate the beginning of the expected inflation increase caused by tariffs, making the Federal Reserve cautious about resuming interest rate cuts. Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the CPI rose by 0.3% in June, after a slight increase of 0.1% in May. This is the largest increase since January. It rose by 2.7% on a year-on-year basis, after rising by 2.4% in May. The core CPI rose by 0.2%, up 2.9% year-on-year, after rising by 2.8% for three consecutive months. The sharp increase in commodity prices may be partially offset by a moderate increase in service costs, easing concerns about rising inflation pressures. Weak demand has limited price increases in service-related categories (such as airfare, hotel and motel room prices).
Fed Official: Today's CPI report will not change the Fed's policy direction. The latest article from the "Fed Transmitter" Nick Timiraos stated: "The inflation data in June may keep the Federal Reserve officials cautious, those who have predicted that tariffs will cause more significant price pressures later this year, after seeing the data in June, may not have much reason to change that view - especially if retailers delay price adjustments as much as possible. The June data will only make the upcoming July and August data more important. Similarly, those who believed that tariffs would not cause significant inflation (because the pricing power of businesses was not enough to support an increase in inflation) will almost have no reason to change their views after seeing the report on Tuesday." In recent weeks, Fed Chairman Powell has indicated that the threshold for interest rate cuts by the Fed may be slightly lower than in the spring. This shift reflects an assessment: inflation risks may take longer to materialize, thus their impact will also be relatively weaker. If the Fed maintains the expectation that "inflation acceleration will not be too severe", then based on softness in the labor market or improvement in inflation data, Powell may open the door to rate cuts as early as September.
U.S. housing price growth slows, producer price report to provide more reference. Today's inflation data shows that the growth rate of housing prices in the service category, one of the main drivers of inflation in recent years, has slowed down, mainly due to a decline in hotel prices. Although Fed officials emphasize that housing prices are very important in evaluating the overall inflation trend, they will calculate based on another independent index. This indicator is the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), which has a lower weight on housing than the Consumer Price Index (CPI), explaining why the trend of this index is closer to the Fed's 2% target. The US government's producer price report, scheduled to be released on Wednesday, will provide information on more categories directly included in the PCE, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index report will be published later this month.
Trump: Reached an agreement with Indonesia, the United States will gain comprehensive access to the Indonesian market. U.S. President Trump stated that this morning, after talking with the President of Indonesia, I finalized an important agreement with the country. As part of the agreement, Indonesia has committed to purchasing $15 billion worth of U.S. Energy Corp. products, $4.5 billion from Shenzhen Agricultural Power Group, and 50 Boeing Company planes, many of which are 777 models. For the first time in history, our ranchers, farmers, and fishermen will gain full access to the Indonesian market. In addition, Indonesia will pay a 19% tariff on all goods exported to the United States, while goods exported from the United States to Indonesia will be exempt from all tariffs and non-tariff barriers. If the relevant goods are transferred from a high-tariff country, the corresponding tariff of the originating country will be added to the tariff paid by Indonesia.
Canadian Prime Minister: US tariffs may be long-term. Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that U.S. tariffs may be long-lasting. There are currently many signs indicating that it is very difficult for any country or region to completely escape U.S. tariffs through negotiations. Forexlive analysts state that Trump is enjoying a flow of dollars and hopes that current inflation is a temporary phenomenon rather than a prolonged problem. Therefore, reducing tariffs to zero is almost impossible. Starting from August 1st, the U.S. will impose a 35% tariff on Canada. Although there may still be some room for negotiation, the expected final tariff level may fall between 10% and 20%. Trump hopes that companies can absorb most of the cost of tariffs on their own, as he believes these tariffs are actually a tax needed to do business in the United States.
Manufacturing activity in New York State rises for the first time since February. According to a monthly survey released by the New York Fed on Tuesday, driven by rising demand and warming optimism, manufacturing activity in New York State expanded for the first time in five months this month. The New York Fed said that its statewide manufacturing index jumped by 21.5 points in July to 5.5. New orders rose slightly, and inventories increased significantly. The New York Fed's economic research advisors stated that shipments increased and employment rose for the second consecutive month. Companies remain relatively optimistic about the future outlook. However, due to persistent concerns about inflation caused by tariffs, input prices increased. At the same time, delivery times lengthened, and supply availability continued to deteriorate. Despite this, companies' capital expenditure plans have increased, and overall, companies expect economic activity to continue to grow in the coming months.
[Individual Stock News]
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) continues to see an executive exodus, with the North American sales director leaving after 15 years in the role. According to the Wall Street Journal, sources say Tesla, Inc.'s North America sales director Troy Jones has resigned. He has worked at Tesla, Inc. for 15 years, and this comes at a time when the company is facing a significant drop in sales. Less than a month ago, Musk's senior assistant Omead Afshar left, Afshar, who was promoted less than a year ago, was responsible for overseeing sales and manufacturing operations in North America and Europe. Tesla, Inc.'s North American HR director Jenna Ferrua also resigned in June. Earlier this year, a senior AI executive also left the company - Engineering Vice President Milan Kovac was in charge of overseeing the development of Tesla, Inc.'s humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation "Optimus", which was crucial to Musk's vision of transforming Tesla, Inc. from an electric vehicle maker into a Siasun Robot&Automation and AI company. In recent weeks, Tesla, Inc. executives have continued to downplay Wall Street's concerns about declining sales and profit margins, instead emphasizing the potential benefits from Tesla, Inc.'s investments in autonomous driving software and humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation.
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) H20 returns to the market, but Chinese chip orders for the past three months have already sold out. Several domestic chip industry insiders stated that in the first half of this year, several major domestic chip manufacturers had "capacity fully booked", with "Kunlun, Cambricon, among others all sold out". Chinese GPU manufacturers are taking advantage of the vacuum period of the past three months to compete against H20. A founder of a domestic chip company stated that to compete against NVIDIA Corporation in the market, everyone has focused on several key areas for product development: for example, emphasizing that inference chips can better adapt to models; or increasing the memory of inference cards to reduce communication pressure and accommodate larger models; or increasing the speed of data transfer and reducing dependence on memory; and also emphasizing that the energy efficiency of inference chips is better than H20. "H20 can find a bunch of mid-range replacements in China, most domestic chips are targeting H20 in terms of specifications and price, which makes them the main competitors of domestic chips at present," analyzed an industry insider.
[Major Bank Ratings]
Oppenheimer: Broadcom Inc. (AVGO.US) target price raised from $265 to $305; NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) target price raised from $175 to $200.
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