China’s GDP Grew by 5.3% Year-on-Year in the First Half of 2025

In the first half of 2024, China’s economy upheld a consistent trajectory of steady growth and structural improvement. Core indicators related to production, demand, employment, and income exhibited resilience, while emergent industries contributed to the nation's ongoing shift toward high-quality development.

On Tuesday, July 15, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that gross domestic product (GDP) reached RMB 66.0536 trillion during the six-month period, reflecting a 5.3% year-on-year increase at constant prices. Broken down by sector, value added in the primary industry came in at RMB 3.1172 trillion, rising 3.7%; secondary industry totaled RMB 23.905 trillion, up 5.3%; and tertiary industry reached RMB 39.0314 trillion, gaining 5.5%.

Quarterly data showed GDP growth of 5.4% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2 compared to the previous year. On a sequential basis, Q2 expanded by 1.1% over Q1. Agriculture held firm. Crop farming output increased 3.7% year-on-year. Summer grain production totaled 149.74 million tons, a slight dip of 0.1% or 150,000 tons. Combined meat output, including pork, beef, mutton, and poultry, was 48.43 million tons, up 2.8%. Pork production rose 1.3%, beef 4.5%, and poultry 7.4%, while mutton declined 4.6%. Milk and egg output increased by 0.5% and 1.5%, respectively. By the end of Q2, the live pig inventory reached 424.47 million heads, an annual increase of 2.2%, while 366.19 million pigs had been slaughtered, up 0.6%.

Industrial performance showed sustained momentum. Enterprises classified above the designated size posted a 6.4% rise in value added. Growth in mining was 6.0%, manufacturing rose 7.0%, and utilities increased 1.9%. Equipment and high-tech manufacturing recorded strong performances, rising 10.2% and 9.5%, respectively—outpacing the broader industrial sector by 3.8 and 3.1 percentage points. By ownership, state-owned firms grew 4.2%, shareholding companies 6.9%, foreign and Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan-invested businesses 4.3%, and private enterprises 6.7%. Output of select strategic products saw large gains: 3D printers grew 43.1%, new energy vehicles 36.2%, and industrial robots 35.6%. June figures showed industrial value added increased 6.8% from a year earlier and 0.50% compared to May. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) registered 49.7%, with production and business activity expectations at 52.0%. Between January and May, large industrial firms reported aggregate profits of RMB 2.7204 trillion, marking a 1.1% annual decrease.

The service sector expanded further. In the first half of the year, value added rose 5.5% year-on-year, improving by 0.2 percentage points from Q1. Key industries saw rapid growth: IT and software services advanced 11.1%, leasing and commercial services 9.6%, transportation/postal/storage services 6.4%, and wholesale and retail trade 5.9%. June’s service production index rose 6.0% from the prior year. From January to May, major service providers posted an 8.1% increase in operating income. The general business activity index stood at 50.1%, and the index for expected business activity reached 56.0%. Several sub-sectors, including telecom, internet, finance, insurance, and capital markets, exceeded 55.0% in measured activity.

Consumer spending saw renewed strength, especially in discretionary and upgraded product segments. Retail sales of consumer goods totaled RMB 24.5458 trillion in the first six months, a 5.0% annual increase, accelerating by 0.4 percentage points over the first quarter. Urban consumption hit RMB 21.305 trillion, up 5.0%, while rural sales rose to RMB 3.2409 trillion, up 4.9%. Goods-related retail rose 5.1% to RMB 21.7978 trillion, and catering revenue increased 4.3% to RMB 2.748 trillion. Key product categories saw double-digit growth: grain/oil/food jumped 12.3%, sports and entertainment goods 22.2%, and jewelry 11.3%. Under consumption stimulus efforts like “trade-in” policies, household appliances rose 30.7%, office and cultural supplies 25.4%,

communication equipment 24.1%, and furniture 22.9%. Online retail sales rose 8.5% to RMB 7.4295 trillion, of which RMB 6.1191 trillion was for physical goods, up 6.0% and comprising 24.9% of total retail turnover. June data showed retail sales grew 4.8% year-on-year but fell 0.16% from the previous month. Service-oriented consumption grew 5.3% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points higher than Q1.

Fixed asset investment excluding rural households increased 2.8% year-on-year, reaching RMB 24.8654 trillion. Stripping out real estate development, investment rose 6.6%. Infrastructure expanded by 4.6%, manufacturing by 7.5%, while real estate investment contracted by 11.2%. Total floor space sold for new housing was 458.51 million square meters, down 3.5%, with transaction value falling 5.5% to RMB 4.4241 trillion. By sector, investment in primary industry grew 6.5%, secondary industry 10.2%, and tertiary industry declined 1.1%. Private investment decreased 0.6%, though when excluding real estate it climbed 5.1%. Investment in high-tech industries showed robust gains: information services rose 37.4%, aerospace equipment 26.3%, and computer and office equipment manufacturing 21.5%. On a month-on-month basis, investment dipped 0.12% in June.

Goods trade continued its upward path and showed improvement in structural composition. Total imports and exports reached RMB 21.7876 trillion, up 2.9% year-on-year. Exports grew 7.2% to RMB 13 trillion, while imports declined 2.7% to RMB 8.7875 trillion. Trade volume by private enterprises rose 7.3%, making up 57.3% of total trade, up 2.3 percentage points over the same period in 2023. Trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries expanded 4.7%. Exported electromechanical goods climbed 9.5%, representing 60.0% of all exports. In June, trade activity totaled RMB 3.8527 trillion, up 5.2% year-on-year, with exports at RMB 2.3394 trillion (+7.2%) and imports at RMB 1.5134 trillion (+2.3%).

Consumer prices remained generally stable. The national Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the first half declined by 0.1% year-on-year. Food, tobacco, and alcohol fell 0.3%, clothing increased 1.3%, housing rose 0.1%, while household goods and services remained flat. Transportation and communication dropped 2.9%, education/culture/entertainment rose 0.8%, healthcare increased 0.3%, and other goods and services surged 6.7%. Among food items, fresh vegetables decreased 5.3%, grain fell 1.3%, while fresh fruit and pork rose 2.7% and 3.8%, respectively. CPI in June rose 0.1% year-on-year but fell 0.1% month-on-month. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, grew by 0.4% year-on-year in H1, up 0.1 percentage points from Q1. In June, core CPI increased 0.7%, up 0.1 percentage points over May. Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 2.8% year-on-year in H1. In June, it dropped 3.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. The purchase price index for industrial producers decreased 2.9% in H1 and 4.3% in June.

Employment conditions remained generally stable. The average surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.2% in the first half, down 0.1 percentage points from Q1. In June, the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%. Among local household-registered workers, the rate was 5.1%, while among non-local workers (including rural migrants), it stood at 4.8%. In 31 major cities, the unemployment rate matched the national level at 5.0%. Weekly working hurs averaged 48.5. By the end of the second quarter, the number of rural migrant workers totaled 191.39 million, an increase of 0.7% year-on-year.

Per capita disposable income continued to grow. Nationwide, average per capita disposable income reached RMB 21,840, reflecting a nominal increase of 5.3% and a real growth rate of 5.4%. Urban residents earned RMB 28,844, increasing by 4.7% both nominally and in real terms, while rural residents saw income rise to RMB 11,936, with nominal growth of 5.9% and real growth of 6.2%. In terms of sources, per capita wage income, net operating income, net property income, and net transfer income increased by 5.7%, 5.3%, 2.5%, and 5.6%, respectively. The national median per capita disposable income reached RMB 18,186, a nominal rise of 4.8%.

In summary, proactive macroeconomic policies took effect in the first half of the year, and the economy continued its steady and positive trajectory, showcasing strong resilience and vitality. Nonetheless, uncertainties remain in the external environment, and insufficient domestic demand indicates that the foundation for sustained recovery still requires further reinforcement