"Scenery" steps down, geothermal coal energy take the stage? Trump tax law triggers new energy and climate map.

Trump's led new tax law provides a new lifeline for some unpopular segments of the energy and climate industry, including high-risk gambling ventures from coal-fired power generation to cooling the earth, all of which may receive a significant boost. After the "big and beautiful" bill passed through Congress, despite the market's pessimistic sentiment about the significant expansion of the US budget deficit and causing massive selling of long-term US Treasuries of 10 years or more, President Donald Trump's proposed $3.4 trillion fiscal stimulus plan has created opportunities for those areas in the global energy and climate industry that have fallen out of favor with policies, have difficulty growing, or have failed to make a breakthrough. The tax and spending law signed on July 4th in Eastern Time provided a lifeline for the coal industry, which has been squeezed by low-cost renewable energy and natural gas power generation in recent years. The law also injected strong growth momentum into the nuclear energy industry - although the industry has regained investor and policy support before Trump returned to the White House, this enthusiasm has not yet translated into a significant increase in domestic electricity generation capacity in the United States. The law also has the potential to push forward an unverified and risky climate change system - geoengineering, which has been in the doldrums for a long time, moving closer to reality. Coal Despite Trump's long-standing support for traditional high-carbon-emitting energy sources such as coal and oil, the coal industry faced challenges during his first term as President. The new law directly and indirectly takes measures to stem its decline. The law will gradually phase out tax breaks for wind and CECEP Solar Energy, which could weaken their economic competitiveness. In addition, metallurgical coal (used in traditional manufacturing industries such as steel production) has also been included in the US "critical minerals" list eligible for tax breaks. This law is the latest move to support the fossil fuel sector by Trump. Earlier in April this year, he signed an executive order to push for coal-fired power for large-scale AI data centers under construction processes, instead of wind power systems long supported by the Biden administration. The Trump administration also intervened to prevent the retirement of a coal-fired power plant. Supporters say this move will help alleviate the often pressured US grid load, but Lea Stokes, an energy and climate change expert and assistant professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara, pointed out that while the power system is expanding its capacity, the carbon emissions from burning this "dirtiest" fossil fuel will pose a significant threat to the climate, and this move could also push up local baseload energy prices. Nuclear Energy Just a few years ago, aging US nuclear power plants were constantly facing retirement. Today, the AI boom has rekindled interest in investment and development of power plants that can provide efficient and zero-carbon power supply around the clock, prompting efforts to restart two large nuclear power plants that have been shut down. However, in recent years, the US has only added two traditional nuclear reactors, and there are currently no new traditional reactor projects under construction, but the nuclear energy industry is increasingly focusing on the development of "small modular reactors" (SMRs). The new law signed by Trump extends support for nuclear energy while weakening the competitiveness of clean energy such as wind and CECEP Solar Energy, thereby significantly enhancing the relative advantage of nuclear energy. The law followed a key executive order signed by Trump in May, which called for reforming the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to expedite the approval process for nuclear power projects, which have been slow to progress. Shortly thereafter, New York Governor Kathy Hochul (a Democrat) announced that the state would push forward with the construction of a new nuclear power plant. Despite government support for nuclear energy in the US, the technology still faces many challenges in achieving large-scale and rapid development. Part of the obstacle comes from a provision in Trump's signed law: if it "involves entities of foreign interest," projects will be ineligible for tax breaks, bringing significant uncertainty to investors. Large data centers, the most core infrastructure projects of the AI era, are crucial for the efficient operation of generative artificial intelligence applications such as ChatGPT and the updates and iterations of AI large models such as GPT, Claude, and DeepSeek. Under the global trend of decarbonization in the current and future long periods, nuclear energy, as a highly efficient and stable clean energy source, has become the most favored energy source for tech giants such as Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. This energy source, which combines cleanliness, stability, and efficiency, is expected to provide 24/7 strong power support for their immense data centers. Therefore, the current support for nuclear energy by global politicians and tech companies may be stronger than at any time since the 1970s. The most noteworthy is the complete change in the US government's attitude towards nuclear reactors, especially with Trump's strong push for the revival of nuclear power in the US after returning to the White House. Many industry insiders in the energy sector view Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) as the future of nuclear power generation. Many US power giants and SMR developers, including GE Vernova, generally believe that these reactors, with their smaller size and use of prefabricated proprietary components for on-site assembly, can reduce the construction costs of nuclear power plants and accelerate the construction period of nuclear power generation. In terms of power, construction methods, and safety concepts, Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are radically different from traditional gigawatt-level nuclear power plants: their single unit power does not exceed 300 MW, core equipment can be manufactured in batches at a factory and transported to the site as a whole, and there is inherent integration of passive safety systems; with the rapid rise in demand for 24/7 low-carbon power for data centers and AI systems, this "factory-built nuclear power" approach is perfectly in line with the trends of distributed, scalable, and easily financeable new power infrastructure. Therefore, in the view of many nuclear energy and nuclear power plant engineers, SMRs are likely to become the main theme of the expansion and rejuvenation of nuclear energy in the AI era. Especially the increasingly massive AI server clusters bring about distributed, high-power, round-the-clock power demand and the natural fit of SMRs' product form. AI training/inference clusters are often located on the edge of cities or industrial parks, and the small footprint and flexible site selection capability of SMRs make it possible for "source-load same site," reducing transmission losses and conflicts in land use approval. Geothermal Energy Geothermal energy has long been coveted by environmentalists. The heat inside the Earth is both clean and abundant, and if used properly, it can provide uninterrupted power supply similar to nuclear energy in terms of efficiency. However, establishing a substantial capacity at the grid level has been difficult due to high exploration costs and difficulty in verifying resources. In recent years, geothermal hopes have risen again. Some start-up companies are beginning to use hydraulic fracturing techniques pioneered by the oil and gas industry and shale oil giants to expand the geographical range of potential geothermal energy projects. Similar to nuclear energy systems, geothermal energy is excluded from the gradual phase-out of tax breaks for wind and CECEP Solar Energy. In addition, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has openly supported the development of geothermal energy, stating that a mature geothermal industry "helps drive AI technology development, reshores manufacturing to the US, and stabilizes electricity prices." Public records show that Wright previously served as CEO of Liberty Energy Inc., which invested in the geothermal start-up Fervo Energy. Lea Stokes, a professor at the University of California, pointed out that because geothermal technology overlaps with the extraction techniques in the fossil fuel industry, "this is an area that can fully utilize existing talents, technologies, patents, and skills." Stokes added that this "transferability" is also a highlight valued by Wright. Unlike wind and CECEP Solar Energy infrastructure, geothermal energy is not affected by weather and seasons, providing stable base load power. Therefore, geothermal power plants can operate 24 hours a day, mainly using water heated instantly by underground rocks to generate electricity without emitting significant carbon dioxide levels during the operation process. Geothermal energy is the natural release of heat from the Earth's interior, a source of heat that will continue for billions of years throughout the Earth's life cycle. Therefore, from the Earth's perspective, geothermal energy is a renewable resource, and geothermal power generation in operation process almost does not emit greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, making it a very efficient and clean energy source. Geoengineering Trump's led new law will not only reshape the energy landscape of the United States but may also reshape the global climate governance order, including pushing forward a highly risky "cooling the earth" program from theory to reality. ClearView Energy Partners, a research institution focusing on energy systems, stated in a brief on the impact of the law that the newly passed law significantly raises the global implementation of "solar shading" technology (geoengineering) - such as the possibility of spraying aerosols into the stratosphere. This concept has long been considered marginal, and most scientific studies show that it carries significant risks. However, with the continuous rise in global temperatures and Trump's push for the development of fossil fuels, public perception may change. "A continuously warming world may increasingly put elected officials under pressure to reduce carbon emissions," analysts at ClearView wrote. "Facing increasingly frequent wildfires, floods, and cold snaps, leaders may increasingly lean towards 'geoengineering' measures such as injecting aerosols into the stratosphere to directly intervene in the Earth's climate system." Although ClearView did not imply that Trump will personally push for this intervention, the institution's analysts stated that geoengineering could allow the United States to continue powering AI data centers favored by Trump with fossil fuels, while attempting to curb rising temperatures. Timothy Fox, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, said, "If policymakers remain concerned about climate change and the slow progress of energy transition, then this once taboo topic - geoengineering, may be a step closer to becoming a reality." "Geoengineering" mainly refers to "solar radiation management" (SRM) technology in "stratospheric aerosol injection" (SAI), which injects small aerosols (commonly imagined as sulfur dioxide or sulfate particles) into the stratosphere approximately 15-25 kilometers above the ground, these particles form a semi-transparent "sunshade" that reflects some of the solar radiation back into space, reducing the energy reaching the Earth's surface, thus temporarily weakening the global warming effect. However, SRM technology is immature, with high risk and uncertainty. The scientific community generally believes that small-scale, transparent outdoor experiments must be conducted under strict international governance frameworks before deciding whether to deploy it on a large scale.