Next week, Bank of America is set to release its financial report, with global banks expected to receive a 10% boost in trading revenue due to tariff turmoil.
According to the analysis company Crisil Coalition Greenwich's predictions, global banks, including top US banks, are expected to achieve a 10% growth in market revenues as traders profit from changes in US tariff policies.
According to analysis from Crisil Coalition Greenwich, global banks, including top U.S. banks, are expected to achieve a 10% growth in market revenue as traders profit from changes in U.S. tariff policies.
It is reported that this forecast is based on a 15% increase in trading revenue in the first quarter for the top 12 global banks. These 12 global banks include JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US), Bank of America Corp (BAC.US), Citigroup (C.US), Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS.US), Morgan Stanley (MS.US), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC.US), and some European competitors. Executives from Bank of America Corp and Citigroup stated last month that following a strong performance in the first quarter, market revenue is expected to grow at a mid to high single-digit percentage in the second quarter.
Some executives and analysts suggest that when large U.S. banks report their second-quarter earnings next week, their market revenue may even exceed these expectations. Data from electronic trading platform Tradeweb Markets shows that this growth occurred after President Trump announced tariff policies in April, sparking market volatility and driving record-high trading volume in the U.S. Treasury market. Tradeweb Markets, which operates electronic trading platforms for interest rates, credit, stocks, and currencies, reported that average daily trading volume in April increased by 38.6% year-on-year to $2.7 trillion, surpassing the historical record of $2.71 trillion in March.
An anonymous Wall Street executive discussing client activity stated, "Anyone involved in market-making and providing instant liquidity to clients will benefit." "Stocks fall, bonds fall, currencies fall the riskiness of portfolios is increasing, and we are seeing risk-off operations in the market."
Mollie Devine, the market competition analysis head at Crisil Coalition Greenwich, stated, "Volatility is the friend of market revenue." She added that some tariff announcements have become a "positive catalyst" for trading desks.
Mollie Devine pointed out that even though the stock market is smaller than the bond or foreign exchange market, stocks outperform fixed income and currencies. She predicts that second-quarter equity trading revenue will increase by 18% year-on-year, while bond trading revenue will grow by 5%.
Wells Fargo & Company analyst Mike Mayo stated that banks are experiencing continued high levels of trading activity due to ongoing uncertainties surrounding tariffs, interest rates, and the political environment. He said, "The high trading volumes of the past few years are not an anomaly, but a return to normal after long periods of zero interest rates."
Mike Mayo forecasted that trading revenue for large U.S. banks in the first half of the year will increase by 8%, with a slowdown to 5% in the second half, and maintain low single-digit percentage growth next year. He said, "The direct impact of tariffs is amplifying trading volumes, but the effects of tariffs will weaken over time."
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