Fluctuations in Murban crude oil supply trouble traders, putting Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's reputation to the test.

Confusion surrounding the flagship Murban crude oil supply of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) this month has left traders frustrated and questioning official information on production levels. Last month, Adnoc had announced a cut in the July supply of Murban crude oil, but some buyers later received notices indicating that they would receive their full quotas. Prior to this, Adnoc had unexpectedly reduced export volumes for the coming months at the end of May, only to adjust them shortly after releasing preliminary shipment forecasts for 2026. The core issue lies in predictability. Traders say that Adnoc needs to send consistent signals on supply levels to ensure stability in the physical trading framework. Abu Dhabi also aims to establish Murban as a regional benchmark crude oil and had launched related futures contracts on a regulated exchange four years ago. Jorge Montepeque, Managing Director of Onyx Capital Group, stated, "This brings reputation risk. This situation undoubtedly weakens market confidence in Adnoc." Traders report that supply issues from Adnoc have also led to a significant decrease in trading activity within the spot trading window of S&P Global Commodity Insights last month, which is used to set the price of Middle Eastern Dubai benchmark oil. Only three full crude oil cargoes were traded in that month, and none were Murban crude, far below normal levels. A spokesperson for Adnoc stated that the company is committed to fulfilling its obligations to project partners and customers and maintaining uninterrupted supply. However, this uncertainty has led some traders to seek more secure supply methods, such as shifting from spot trades to long-term contracts. But sources reveal that Murban crude is a key variety for many Asian refineries, making it difficult to switch to other types of oil. Additionally, the uncertainty over July supply levels may result in mismatches between hedged positions and expected supply, leading to trading losses.