National Bureau of Statistics Interpretation: In June, the year-on-year CPI changed from a decrease to an increase, and the core CPI continued to rise.

On July 9th, Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted the CPI and PPI data for June 2025. In June, the policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption continued to show results, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.1% year-on-year after a decrease last month; a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, narrower than the previous month by 0.1 percentage points; the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, continued to rise, increasing by 0.7% year-on-year. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, the same as the previous month, and a 3.6% year-on-year decrease, expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. The full text is as follows: CPI Year-on-Year Turned from Decrease to Increase in June 2025, Core CPI Continued to Rise - Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics interprets the CPI and PPI data for June 2025 In June, the policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption continued to show results, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.1% year-on-year after a decrease last month; a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, narrower than the previous month by 0.1 percentage points; the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, continued to rise by 0.7% year-on-year. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, the same as the previous month, and a 3.6% year-on-year decrease, expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. I. CPI Turned from Decrease to Increase Year-on-Year, Core CPI Continued to Rise CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year, turning positive after four consecutive months of decrease. The increase in CPI was mainly affected by the rebound in industrial consumer goods prices. The year-on-year decrease in industrial consumer goods prices narrowed from 1.0% last month to 0.5%, reducing the downward impact on CPI year-on-year by about 0.18 percentage points compared to last month. The impact of oil price fluctuations on energy prices narrowed by 1.0 percentage points compared to last month, reducing the downward impact on CPI year-on-year by about 0.08 percentage points; influenced by changes in international commodity prices, the prices of gold and platinum jewelry rose by 39.2% and 15.9% year-on-year respectively, totaling about 0.21 percentage points increase in CPI year-on-year; the effect of policies to promote consumption continues to show results, with durable consumer goods in entertainment, household textiles, and home appliances rising by 2.0%, 2.0%, and 1.0% year-on-year respectively; the decline in car prices is gradually narrowing, with prices of gasoline-powered cars and new energy cars falling by 3.4% and 2.5% year-on-year respectively, marking the smallest decrease in nearly 28 and 26 months. The decline in food prices slightly narrowed. Food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, with beef prices ending a 28-month consecutive decline and rising by 2.7%; pork prices decreased by 8.5%, marking the first decline after continuous increases. Service prices rose by 0.5%, with a stable increase. Core CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, expanding by 0.1 percentage point compared to the previous month, reaching a new high in nearly 14 months. CPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, 0.1 percentage points narrower than the previous month. The decrease in food prices was less than seasonal. Due to higher temperatures and increased rainfall compared to the same period in previous years, food prices decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, less than the seasonal level by 0.5 percentage points. Among food items, freshwater fish and fresh vegetables rose by 4.3% and 0.7% respectively, both higher than the seasonal level. Industrial consumer goods prices turned from decline to increase. Influenced by changes in international oil prices, gasoline prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month, after a 3.8% decrease last month, leading to an increase in energy prices after a 1.7% decrease last month. Excluding energy, industrial consumer goods prices rose by 0.1% month-on-month, with platinum jewelry prices rising by 12.6% due to increased demand as gold prices remained high, marking the largest month-on-month increase in nearly 10 years. Service prices remained stable. Graduation season saw an increase in demand for rental housing, with rental prices rising by 0.1%. II. The month-on-month decrease in PPI remained the same as the previous month, with some industries showing signs of stabilizing and rising prices PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, the same as the previous month. The main reasons for the month-on-month decrease in PPI were: first, seasonal declines in prices in some domestic raw material manufacturing industries. With more hot weather and rainy days in summer, affecting the progress of some real estate and infrastructure projects, coupled with relatively sufficient supply of steel and cement, prices in the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 1.8%, and non-metallic mineral product industry prices fell by 1.4%, collectively impacting a 0.18 percentage points decrease in PPI month-on-month. Second, an increase in green electricity led to a decrease in energy prices. With the arrival of summer, Cecep Solar Energy in the northwest, wind power, and increased hydroelectric power in the southwest led to a decrease in overall electricity production costs, resulting in a 0.9% decrease in the production and supply of electricity and thermal energy; at the same time, the role of green electricity in replacing thermal power increased, leading to a decrease in demand for coal power, coupled with stable coal production, and sufficient coal reserves at power plants and ports, resulting in a 5.5% decrease in coal processing prices, and a 3.4% decrease in coal mining and washing prices. The above three industries collectively impacted a 0.15 percentage points decrease in PPI month-on-month. Third, pressures on prices in some industries with a high proportion of exports. With global trade growth slowing down, the uncertainty in the international trade environment has affected business export expectations, leading to increased downward pressure on prices in some industries with a high proportion of exports in China, with prices in the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry falling by 0.4%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry prices falling by 0.2%, and the textile industry prices falling by 0.2%. Due to the month-on-month decrease and changes in the base comparison, the year-on-year decline in PPI expanded by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, but with the reinforcement of various macroeconomic policies, the supply and demand relationships in some industries have improved, and prices are showing signs of stabilizing and rising. First, the deepening construction of a unified national market has led to a narrowing of the year-on-year decline in prices in some industries. Efforts to address low-price disordered competition among enterprises have intensified, leading to the gradual exit of outdated capacity and product quality improvements, with prices of complete vehicles for gasoline and diesel cars and new energy cars rising by 0.5% and 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing by 1.9% and 0.4% compared to the previous month; prices for photovoltaic equipment and electronic components manufacturing fell by 10.9% year-on-year, narrowing the decline by 1.2 percentage points; prices for lithium-ion battery manufacturing fell by 4.8% year-on-year, narrowing the decline by 0.2 percentage points. Second, the strengthening of policies to boost consumption has led to a rebound in prices of some consumer goods. With the continuous release of domestic demand potential and increasing demand for high-quality living, prices of general daily necessities and clothing rose by 0.8% and 0.1% respectively year-on-year; durable consumer goods prices fell by 2.7%, narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. By industry, prices in the craft, etiquette supplies manufacturing industry rose by 13.1% year-on-year, silk processing prices rose by 1.2%, and sports equipment manufacturing prices rose by 0.7%. Prices in the manufacturing of household refrigeration appliances, household beauty and healthcare appliances, and television manufacturing fell by 0.8%, 0.5%, and 0.3 percentage points respectively year-on-year. Third, the accumulation of new momentum led to an increase in prices in some high-tech industries year-on-year. China is accelerating the cultivation of new productive forces, with the role of innovation leading to the continuous development and growth of new momentum in high-end manufacturing, smart manufacturing, and the digital economy; prices for integrated circuit packaging and testing series rose by 3.1% year-on-year, wearable smart device manufacturing prices rose by 1.4%, microwave communication equipment prices rose by 1.3%, aerospace equipment manufacturing prices rose by 1.1%, server prices rose by 0.9%, and micro-special motor and component manufacturing prices rose by 0.6% year-on-year. Source: National Bureau of Statistics; Edited by GMTEight: Huang Xiaodong.