Trump's tariffs have sparked concerns about inflation but have since subsided, as a survey by the Federal Reserve shows that the public's expectations are stable.

According to a latest survey released by the New York Federal Reserve Bank on Tuesday, concerns about the inflationary impact of President Trump's tariff policy have largely subsided. The bank's monthly Consumer Expectations Survey shows that American consumers' expectations for inflation in the next year remain at 3%, consistent with the level in January before Trump took office. This data has dropped 0.2 percentage points from May, and significantly decreased from the peak of 3.6% in March and April. At the beginning of the year, Trump vigorously promoted tariff policies after taking office, announcing comprehensive tariffs of 10% on multiple trading partners, as well as proposing a series of reciprocal tariff plans, which raised concerns in the market about rapid price increases. However, since April, Trump has gradually shifted towards a more moderate negotiating stance, and the tariff issue has gradually taken a back seat. Currently, these tariff policies have not yet been reflected in most official inflation data. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May only rose by 0.1%, and the annual inflation rate was 2.4%, slightly higher than the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, but still considered moderate and controllable. The survey also shows that consumers' expectations for medium and long-term inflation remain stable: 3% for the next three years and 2.6% for the next five years. While overall inflation expectations are stabilizing, the survey also points out that consumers still hold relatively high expectations for certain key living expenses. For example, respondents expect gasoline prices to rise by 4.2% in the next year, medical costs to surge by 9.3%, the highest level since June 2023; college tuition and rent are also expected to increase by 9.1% respectively; and food prices are expected to rise by 5.5%, unchanged from last month. In terms of employment, the data shows some positive signs. The likelihood of an increase in the unemployment rate in the next year has decreased by 1.1 percentage points; and the percentage of respondents worried about unemployment has dropped to 14%, the lowest level since December of last year.