JP Morgan: Initiates coverage of Key Technology with an "overweight" rating and a target price of $65.

date
04/07/2025
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GMT Eight
J.P. Morgan released a research report, initiating coverage of Qi Fu Technology for the first time, and giving it a "overweight" rating with a target price of $65, representing approximately 50% upside potential from the current stock price.
Recently, the global historical longest and largest financial services group J.P. Morgan issued a research report, covering Qifu Technology. Inc ADR Class A (QFIN.US) for the first time, giving it a "Buy" rating with a target price of $65, which represents approximately 50% upside potential from the current stock price, corresponding to a 2026 P/E ratio of 7.5 times. The report points out that Qifu Technology. Inc ADR Class A is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 24% in adjusted EPS from 2024 to 2027, the highest among similar institutions covered by the bank in Greater China. At the same time, benefiting from the expansion of the proportion of light capital business and optimization of financing costs, the company's adjusted ROE is expected to increase from 15.7% in 2024 to 24.6% in 2027. In terms of business model, the proportion of light capital loans by Qifu Technology. Inc ADR Class A is expected to increase from 44% in 2023 to 53% in 2024, and is projected to reach 56% in 2027. The Intelligent Credit Engine (ICE) business accounted for 39% of new loans in the first quarter of 2025, with no credit risk and a high net interest margin. Additionally, the company's asset quality remains stable, with a 90-day delinquency rate ranging from 1.0% to 3.5%, and provisions coverage ratio and loan loss reserves/loan ratio at historical highs. On the technological front, Qifu Technology. Inc ADR Class A has a significant advantage. The company launched the AI Intelligent Body platform in 2025, deploying digital employees covering areas such as data analysis, risk management strategies, operations, financial reconciliation, and compliance, with a third of core processes expected to be driven by AI within 1-2 years. Furthermore, Qifu is using DeepSeek technology to enhance data mining and risk management capabilities, transitioning from single-modal data analysis to multi-modal data analysis. AI-driven marketing strategies have increased user engagement efficiency by 25.1% and reduced customer acquisition costs by about 10%. Furthermore, Qifu Technology. Inc ADR Class A promises to provide shareholders with sustained strong returns, with total returns (dividends + repurchases) from 2025 to 2027 expected to account for 17%, 14%, and 12% of the current market value, ranking among the top in similar institutions covered by the bank in the Asia-Pacific region. In terms of valuation, Qifu Technology. Inc ADR Class A's current stock price corresponds to a 2026 P/E ratio of 5.0 times and a P/B ratio of 1.4 times, lower than the average level of similar institutions in Greater China. The target price of $65 indicates that the bank predicts a significant upside potential for the stock price. As a leading company in the fintech industry, Qifu has experienced steady development after industry consolidation, with new loan growth stability surpassing its peers. In conclusion, J.P. Morgan believes that Qifu Technology. Inc ADR Class A stands out among similar companies in the Greater China region with its high growth potential, strong shareholder returns, and technology empowerment strategic layout, and recommends investors to pay close attention.