Tracking the concept of Hong Kong stocks | The biggest impact of tariff uncertainty has dissipated, institutions are optimistic about the continued rise in copper prices (with concept stocks)

The reason for the interruption of copper mine transportation in Peru is the protests by small-scale gold and copper miners - including setting up roadblocks, dissatisfaction with regulatory restrictions and cumbersome procedures. These protests have obstructed the transportation of semi-finished copper from major mines to the loading port, a trend that has only been prevalent in the past year, mainly due to rising metal prices and the upcoming elections in the country. Informal mining activities threaten the development of new ore deposits and increase global supply risks, with large mining companies seeing the temporary registration of small mines as a cover for illegal activities. Analyst Nikos Chabrolas of Tradu.com said copper prices rose 2.7% this week and nearly 14% since the beginning of the year, approaching historical highs. This metal is crucial for the prosperity of artificial intelligence and the development of renewable energy, with significant usage in areas such as semiconductors, data centers, electric vehicles, and CECEP Solar Energy power systems. Chabrolas wrote that buy orders in the United States surged, with traders buying ahead of potential tariffs, further driving up prices. However, he added that Trump's disruptive trade policies could slow global economic growth, with major miners increasing production, which could put pressure on prices. UBS released a research report stating that it has raised its copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 7% and 4%, to $4.24 and $4.68 per pound, respectively, reversing previous cautious demand outlooks as the greatest impact of tariff uncertainty has faded. The uncertainty of tariffs may lead to a slowdown in end demand, but in UBS's base scenario, demand over the next 12 months will return to trend levels, with slowing Chinese demand offset by the recovery of traditional end markets in Europe and the United States, supported by restocking and long-term driving factors (including electrification, German fiscal policy, defense, and artificial intelligence). UBS maintains a quite optimistic view on copper prices, supported by favorable supply dynamics and long-term demand driving factors. A CITIC SEC research report stated that copper prices have fluctuated upwards recently, with some divergence in the market on the future direction of copper prices. From a commodity perspective, the upstream increase in refined copper production and limited CAPEx, continuous significant reductions in TC/RC costs, and a tight overall balance of global refined copper mines are maintained. In addition, support for copper prices comes from China's "stable growth" and the US economy's "soft landing." The current market price is relatively reasonable, and for copper prices to further open up an upward trend, it is necessary to see further efforts in domestic macro policies and a stable recovery in overseas economies, waiting for the arrival of a new cycle. The upward expectations of inflation, expectations of rate cuts, and a slight decline in the US dollar index are expected to further support the continuation of the current relatively strong and fluctuating market for copper. CITIC SEC maintains its judgment that copper prices will rise in the second half of the year to $10,000 to $11,000 per ton, and is cautious about the potential disturbances from the "equivalent tariff" issue in July. Hong Kong-listed copper mining resource companies: CMOC (03993), Zijin Mining Group (02899), MMG (01208), JIANGXI COPPER (00358)