Huachuang Securities: Precision gear reducer domestic substitution accelerates, driven by three major application scenarios to drive industry growth.

Huachuang Securities released a research report stating that precision reducers have a wide application space, with high technological barriers and downstream industries driving their rapid market growth. Domestic manufacturers are expected to accelerate the import of core customers through years of industrial and technological accumulation and high cost-effectiveness, achieving domestic substitution. The reducer industry is given a "recommended" rating. The report focuses on three major types of layout manufacturers. Huachuang Securities' main points are as follows: Precision reducers: Core transmission components that match speed and transmit torque There are many types of precision reducers, including harmonic reducers, RV reducers, and precision planetary reducers. Harmonic, RV, and planetary reducers have different characteristics and are suitable for different applications. Harmonic reducers have the advantages of high single-stage transmission ratio, small size, low weight, high movement accuracy, and can work normally in closed spaces and in media radiation conditions, giving them a strong advantage in parts such as the arms, wrists, and hands of Siasun Robot&Automation. Planetary reducers have a relatively simple structure, a relatively small size, a limited range of single-stage transmission ratios, and are suitable for the lower limbs of Siasun Robot&Automation. RV reducers have a large range of transmission ratios, stable accuracy, high fatigue strength, and higher rigidity and torque carrying capacity, giving them an advantage in heavy load parts such as the arms and bases of Siasun Robot&Automation. The precision reducer market is booming, with accelerated domestic substitution According to MIR Ruigong, the market size of precision reducers in China is expected to reach 9.1 billion RMB by 2024. Due to the characteristics of high precision and flat structure, harmonic and RV reducers are mainly used in the industrial robotics industry. The sluggish growth of the industrial robotics industry has led to a relatively small increase in market size. On the other hand, precision planetary reducers are mainly used in the machine tool industry and have shown high growth rates driven by the increasing demand for high-end precision machine tools in recent years. Currently, the precision reducer market in China presents a competition pattern of "high-end dominated by foreign brands, and domestic acceleration substitution in the mid-to-low end". By 2024, the sales volume of domestic enterprises in the Chinese market has reached 70%, but the revenue share is only 57%. This difference mainly reflects the certain gap between domestic products and foreign products in terms of consistency and stability. Currently, domestic reducers are mostly used in simple handling and loading scenarios in industrial robotics, with relatively low unit prices; while in high-end applications such as automotive welding, which require higher performance and added value, foreign brands still dominate. Three major industries resonate, bringing new opportunities for reducers 1) Industrial Robotics Industry: The largest downstream application scenario for reducers. According to Ruigong, the shipment volume of precision reducers used in industrial robotics in China is expected to reach approximately 1.097 million units by 2024. In the long term, the upgrading of industrial robotics towards intelligent and flexible direction, as well as the continuous breakthrough of domestic technology in high-end applications (such as automotive manufacturing), will continue to drive steady growth in the precision reducer market. 2) Industrial Machine Tools: The core downstream application scenario for reducers. Currently, the core components of high-end machine tools in China mainly rely on Japanese and German brands, with low usage of domestic components. In the long run, increasing the localization rate of components for mid-to-high-end machine tools is essential for achieving independent control. The bank dismantled the number of reducers corresponding to various types of machine tools, and calculated that the total demand for reducers in the Chinese machine tool field by 2024 will be 598,000 units. 3) Humanoid Robotics Industry: The most potential downstream application scenario for reducers. Currently, the mainstream reducer configuration solution in the humanoid robotics field is the combination of "harmonic reducer + planetary reducer". The Tesla solution requires 16 harmonic reducers for a single Optimus, with a corresponding value of around 20,000 yuan; the domestic full-rotation module solution, the value of a single humanoid robot reducer is about 30,000 yuan. Current layout of domestic reducer manufacturers in three major categories 1) The first category is traditional precision reducer manufacturers, such as Leader Harmonious Drive Systems, Huandong Technology, Ningbo Zhongda Leader Intelligent Transmission, etc. They have accumulated deep experience in application areas such as industrial robotics, and have been verified by many downstream customers over the long term, possessing a stable product system and income base. The core competitiveness of these companies lies in large-scale production capacity, high mature technology, and stable delivery capabilities, leading by virtue of their technological accumulation and manufacturing capabilities. 2) The second category is the extension layout of upstream and downstream related companies in the industrial chain, mainly from the fields of automotive parts, motors, bearings, etc., such as Chengdu Haoneng Technology, Landai Technology Group Corp., Shenzhen Kedali Industry, etc. These companies originally have system integration capabilities, entering the reducer sector through independent research, joint ventures, or technology introduction. These manufacturers have a higher starting point in manufacturing capabilities, but still need to supplement their basic capabilities in high-precision machining and long-term stability. 3) The third category is the transformation of manufacturing enterprises with OEM capabilities, such as Suzhou SLAC Precision Equipment, etc., originally focusing on precision machining, gear manufacturing and other fields, and have a foundation in raw material processing and manufacturing processes. With the explosive market demand, these companies are transforming their products through OEM cooperation. Risk warning: Progress of humanoid robotics may be slower than expected; the product development progress and the import of core customers by domestic manufacturers may be slower than expected; rising raw material prices increase cost risks; intensified market competition, etc.