Open source securities: Top 100 real estate companies' sales in the first six months of the year shrank year-on-year, recommend three major targeted areas.

Open Source Securities released a research report stating that in the first half of 2025, sales are preliminary stabilizing, and it is expected that the subsequent policies related to real estate will remain actively moderate. It is expected that more proactive fiscal and monetary policies will be introduced to support the stable development of the industry. Under positive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, the work of inventory replenishment and urban village renovation is expected to accelerate, improve the existing housing supply-demand relationship, and speed up the process of stabilizing and rebounding. Recommendations: (1) Layout strong credit real estate enterprises that are good at grasping the needs of improving customer demand in cities with good fundamentals; (2) Residential and commercial real estate will be driven by a dual-wheel drive, benefiting from real estate recovery and consumption promotion policies; (3) Quality property management targets with prominent service quality under the "good house, good service" policy. Key points of Open Source Securities are as follows: Sales of the top 100 real estate companies in June declined year-on-year, with excellent performance in sales by Jianfa Jinmao Third-party institutions such as Kerui and Yihan Zhiku released the top 100 sales list for June 2025. According to the list's calculations, the total sales amount of the TOP 100 real estate companies in the first half of the year totaled 1.782 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%, with a total equity sales area of 113.0136 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%. The average sales price was 20,727.2 yuan/square meter. From the data perspective, the overall sales scale in the first half of the year cooled slightly year-on-year, with a low degree of differentiation in sales performance among different tiers of the top 100 real estate companies. In terms of monthly sales in June, Jianfa Real Estate and CHINA JINMAO performed well, and in overall sales from January to June, CHINA JINMAO, YUEXIU PROPERTY, and Jianfa Real Estate performed well in terms of sales performance in 2025. Year-on-year decline in sales amount for each tier, further reduction in average threshold Looking at the structure, the total sales amount of the TOP 10, TOP 50, and TOP 100 real estate companies in the first half of the year reached 851.76 billion, 1,527.26 billion, and 1.782 trillion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -14.0%, -11.5%, and -11.4%. The equity sales amount was 618.32 billion, 1,107.68 billion, and 1,301.36 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -13.9%, -11.2%, and -11.5%. The top real estate companies saw a relatively larger decline in monthly sales year-on-year, but the overall differentiation degree was not high. The average sales prices of the TOP 10, TOP 50, and TOP 100 real estate companies from January to June were 22,014.4 yuan/square meter, 20,629.2 yuan/square meter, and 20,727.2 yuan/square meter, showing a trend of high sales prices leaning towards the top. Poly's sales scale remains in the first place, Jianfa Jinmao's monthly sales performance was excellent From the company's perspective, the top 5 real estate companies in terms of total sales amount from January to June were Poly Developments and Holdings Group, China Overseas Property, CHINA RES LAND, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings, GREENTOWN CHINA, with monthly sales amounts in June of 29.09 billion, 29.75 billion, 23.45 billion, 21.76 billion, and 14.97 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -30.8%, -36.2%, -26.7%, -5.8%, and -14.1%. The cumulative sales amounts from January to June were 145.20 billion, 120.13 billion, 110.30 billion, 88.89 billion, and 80.30 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -16.2%, -19.0%, -11.5%, -11.9%, and -6.0%. Among the top real estate companies, Poly Developments and Holdings Group maintained the first place in terms of scale, while Vanke's sales scale declined significantly. Among the top 10 real estate companies, Jianfa Real Estate and CHINA JINMAO had excellent monthly sales performance, with a year-on-year increase of 27.9% and 17.3% in June, respectively. In terms of cumulative sales, Jianfa Real Estate, YUEXIU PROPERTY, and CHINA JINMAO performed well, with year-on-year changes of +7.0%, +10.8%, and 19.6%. Risk Alert: (1) Industry sales recovery is below expectations (2) Regulatory policies change unexpectedly.