The worst in half a century! The US dollar index plummeted by 10.8% in the first half of the year, with Trump's policies and expectations of interest rate cuts acting as a "double blow".

The US Dollar Index plummeted significantly in the first half of this year, delivering its worst half-year performance since Richard Nixon took office in 1973. As of now, the US Dollar Index has dropped by about 10.8% year-to-date, second only to the 14.8% decline in the first half of 1973. The uncertainties surrounding President Donald Trump's trade and tariff policies, coupled with his efforts to push the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, have become the main factors suppressing the US dollar. Recently, the market's optimistic expectations for a US trade agreement have enhanced the anticipation of an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve. On Monday, the US dollar to Euro exchange rate plunged to its lowest point in nearly four years. The US dollar to Pound exchange rate also fell to a four-year low, while the US dollar to Swiss Franc exchange rate dropped to its lowest point in over a decade. New York foreign exchange strategist Brendan Fagan pointed out that following years of new lows, the US dollar may face more downward pressure, with dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve, weak economic data, and escalating policy uncertainties all weighing heavily on the US dollar. Investors believe that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's testimony to Congress last week showed a relatively dovish stance. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group's "Fed Watch" tool, the likelihood of at least a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to 92.4%, compared to around 70% a week ago. Pepperstone's research director Chris Weston wrote in a report to clients, "Market pricing suggests that there will definitely be a rate cut in September." Weston stated that the US monthly employment report is the most important risk event this week. Furthermore, considering the Federal Reserve's tendency to focus on the timing of the next rate cut, the risks facing the US dollar "seem asymmetrical." He noted that this means the US dollar is more likely to suffer a heavy blow due to poor data than to rise due to strong data.