The worst period is now over! The global mergers and acquisitions market is expected to experience a strong recovery.

Although the performance of the M&A market in the first half of this year did not meet the expectations of investment bankers, a series of large M&A transactions in Asia and the rebound in optimism in the US market may be paving the way for future large-scale M&A deals. Data shows that from January 1st to June 27th, the total value of global M&A transactions reached $2.14 trillion, a 26% increase compared to the previous year. The growth mainly came from the Asian region, where the total M&A value more than doubled to $583.9 billion. Transaction activity in North America also rose to $1.04 trillion during this period, a 17% increase from the same period last year. The tariff policy implemented by Trump since the beginning of April, known as the "Liberation Day", has cooled the market sentiment, leading to the postponement of several M&A transactions and initial public offerings (IPOs) to later quarters. Tommy Rueger, Co-Head of Global Equity Capital Markets at UBS Group AG, stated, "We had expected a high level of transaction activity in the first half of 2025, but the reality is that we did not see it." However, interviews with over a dozen top bankers indicate that confidence is growing that the worst period for the market has passed. Record highs in the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Index have boosted optimism that M&A activity will be more active in the second half of the year. Ivan Farman, Co-Head of Global M&A at Bank of America Corp, said, "Many stalled transactions will be reactivated. I am optimistic about the second half of the year." Matchmakers in the industry believe that factors such as the trade war initiated by US President Trump, high interest rates, and broader political tensions from groups like GEO Group Inc have hindered the performance of the global M&A market this year, but have not completely disrupted bankers' expectations of a "boom year". Matchmakers suggest there is reason to remain optimistic as market recovery and Trump's more lenient antitrust policies pave the way for larger transactions. John Collins, Co-Head of Global Mergers & Acquisitions at Morgan Stanley, said, "The likelihood of mega deals exceeding $50 billion has increased compared to a year ago." At the same time, market volatility has decreased to levels indicating investors are more comfortable. Philip Ross, Executive Chairman of Investment Banking at UBS Group AG, said, "It is evident that market momentum is continuing to build, paving the way for larger transactions. People's sentiment is more positive than a month ago, and they are beginning to implement previous decisions." As the market stabilizes, institutional investors are returning to the stock market and more companies are initiating IPO plans that were previously postponed due to uncertainty. Tommy Rueger said, "The combination of these factors over the past three to four weeks has created an extremely strong backdrop for the new issue market, and we have already seen a significant rebound in M&A activity." Saadi Soudavar, Head of Equity Capital Markets for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa at Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft, added, "Despite tariffs and political instability from GEO Group Inc, the stock market is showing remarkable resilience." Morale Boosters During the peak of tariff turmoil, several major transactions helped boost market morale, including Global Payments acquiring a credit card processing and account services company for $24.25 billion in April. UK-based Charter Communications (CHTR.US) announced it would acquire its private competitor Cox Communications for $21.9 billion. Additionally, US equipment manufacturer Chart Industries (GTLS.US) and Flowserve Corporation agreed to merge, with the resulting company valued at approximately $19 billion. Data from Dealogic shows a total of 17,528 transactions were signed in the first half of this year, compared to 20,583 in the same period last year. However, the size of transactions this year is larger, driving up the total value. Transactions worth over $10 billion increased by 62% compared to the same period last year. Asia's transaction matchmaking is a bright spot. M&A activity in the region during the first six months of this year rose to $583.9 billion, up from $269.9 billion in the same period last year. Some of Asia's largest transactions were concentrated within the Asia-Pacific region, including Toyota Motor Corp. Sponsored ADR announcing on June 3rd the privatization of one of its suppliers for $33 billion and a consortium led by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) proposing a full cash acquisition of Australian oil producer Santos for $18.7 billion on June 16th. Despite market volatility, the Asian market continues to drive the growth of global equity financing. The total amount of equity offerings in the region increased by nearly 8% compared to the same period last year, reaching $350 billion. Raghav Maliah, Co-Chairman of Global Investment Banking at Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., said, "We will see more M&A activity within Asia. Japan plays a key role in the volume of transactions in Asia, and we believe this trend will continue."