Trump's global trade reform encounters obstacles: "Framework agreement" may be difficult to disguise core differences, the EU, Japan and South Korea may become the next dominoes.

Only 10 days remain until President Donald Trump restarts country-specific tariffs, and the White House seems to be struggling to fulfill its promise of comprehensive global trade reform within a three-month negotiation window. Senior advisors to Trump revealed this week that agreements are expected to be reached with as many as 12 major U.S. trading partners before the July 9 deadline. However, based on the only two agreements reached during Trump's term (with China and the UK), these agreements may not be comprehensive deals to address core issues, but rather framework documents that only touch on limited issues and leave many details for future negotiations. Tim Meyer, an international trade expert at Duke University Law School, pointed out: "It is expected that the White House will announce several frameworks referred to as 'trade agreements,' but these agreements do not conform to anyone's conventional understanding of 'trade agreements.'" Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, stated last Friday that for dozens of countries that have not reached agreements (and have faced higher tariffs since April 2), Trump threatens to impose new tariffs above the 10% benchmark rate during the negotiation period, with these countries being "mostly smaller trading partners." Trump and his advisors' statements before July 9 have left investors anxious, with unclear hints about which countries are closer to agreements and which are not making progress. This outcome will impact the future of Trump's trade agenda - a core issue for his 2024 re-election campaign and crucial for global economy and U.S. relations with allies and adversaries. It is still unknown whether the government will strictly adhere to the deadline or extend negotiation time. Bessent stated last Friday that about 20 countries that have not reached agreements by Wednesday can continue negotiations, but if they are deemed to be "genuine negotiators," the tariff rates can remain at 10%, otherwise they will revert to the higher levels from April 2. However, a few hours later, Trump reiterated the threat of unilaterally setting tariffs, even suggesting that action could be taken before July 9. During a White House press briefing, he stated: "We can do whatever we want, and I might even send out a letter to everyone saying, 'Congratulations, you will be paying a 25% tariff.'" Subsequently, Trump abruptly announced the termination of trade negotiations with Canada (due to Canada's digital services tax) on social media, threatening to impose new tariffs on this second largest U.S. trading partner within a week, seen as a warning to other countries that Trump considers to be "non-compliant." These frequent statements remind foreign governments that Trump's policy shifts may come suddenly. In the final frenzied stage before the deadline, leaders from various countries are lobbying Trump, sending delegations to Washington, while Trump and his aides' statements about negotiation results are contradictory. According to insiders, the U.S. is nearing agreements with Indonesia and Taiwan, China, and possible agreements with Vietnam...