Overnight US stocks | Nasdaq, S&P hit record highs, Brent crude oil fell nearly 12% this week

On Friday, the S&P 500 index rose to a peak of 6187.68 points, and the Nasdaq rose to a peak of 20311.51 points, both hitting new intraday highs. After Trump announced an immediate halt to trade negotiations with Canada and threatened to impose new tariffs on the country, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes briefly turned lower but ultimately closed higher. [US Stock Market] At the close, the Dow rose 432.43 points, or 1.00%, to 43819.27 points; the Nasdaq rose 105.55 points, or 0.52%, to 20273.46 points; and the S&P 500 index rose 32.05 points, or 0.52%, to 6173.07 points. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) closed up 1.76%, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) rose 2.85%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index initially closed up about 0.2%. [European Stock Market] The Germany DAX30 index rose 411.08 points, or 1.74%, to 24041.36 points; the UK FTSE 100 index rose 63.69 points, or 0.73%, to 8799.29 points; the France CAC 40 index rose 134.24 points, or 1.78%, to 7691. 55 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 85.02 points, or 1.62%, to 5329.05 points; the Spain IBEX35 index rose 145.52 points, or 1.05%, to 13965.92 points; the Italy FTSE MIB index rose 380.68 points, or 0.97%, to 39732.00 points. [Asian Stock Market] The Nikkei 225 index rose 1.43%, while the South Korea KOSPI index fell 0.77%. [Forex] The US Dollar Index rose on the 27th. The US Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, rose 0.26% on the day and closed at 97.402 in the forex market. At the close of the New York forex market, 1 euro exchanged for 1.1700 US dollars, below the previous trading day's 1.1721 US dollars; 1 pound exchanged for 1.3697 US dollars, below the previous trading day's 1.3749 US dollars. 1 US dollar exchanged for 144.70 Japanese yen, up from the previous trading day's 144.20 Japanese yen; 1 US dollar exchanged for 0.7998 Swiss francs, up from the previous trading day's 0.7991 Swiss francs; 1 US dollar exchanged for 1.3715 Canadian dollars, up from the previous trading day's 1.3627 Canadian dollars; 1 US dollar exchanged for 9.4973 Swedish krona, up from the previous trading day's 9.4849 Swedish krona. [Crude Oil] WTI August crude oil futures rose 0.28 US dollars, or nearly 0.43%, to 65.52 US dollars per barrel, with a cumulative decline of nearly 11.27% this week; Brent August crude oil futures rose 0.04 US dollars, or about 0.06%, to 67.77 US dollars per barrel, with a cumulative decline of nearly 12% this week. According to foreign media reports, OPEC+ will consider extending its large-scale production increase at next month's meeting, as Saudi leaders are leading efforts to regain market share. OPEC+ eight major countries have agreed to a substantial increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day over the past three months. Several representatives stated that their countries are ready to consider further increasing production in August when the meeting is held on July 6th. Sources said that the eight member countries may increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in August at the July 6th meeting. Russia, the leading OPEC+ country, also experienced a notable change in attitude. At the last meeting, Russia briefly opposed an accelerated production increase in July. A person familiar with Russia's position said earlier this week that Moscow is now more willing to accept new production measures if OPEC+ deems it necessary. On Friday, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said, when asked about the possibility of further production increases, "We will study this issue during the meeting." [Metals] Spot gold fell below the $3300 mark, with an intraday decline of over 2.1% and a weekly decline of about 2.8%; COMEX gold futures fell 2.92% this week to $3286.70 per ounce. [Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin rose 0.2% to $107645.9, and Ethereum rose 0.34% to $2424.1. [Macro News] Dow & Ming: The next risk facing the US dollar comes from an increase in hedging by Canadian pension funds. Dow & Ming securities believe that the US dollar will continue to decline due to the pressure on Canadian investors, who are among the largest holders of US stocks, to increase their currency hedging ratio for US assets. "Since the beginning of this year, the safe-haven appeal of the US dollar has diminished, leading to an increase in demand for hedging against long exposures to US assets by these funds," wrote Jayati Bharadwaj, Mark McCormick, and Linda Cheng from the Dow & Ming team in a report on Friday. A further decline in the US dollar "will further prompt Canadian investors to adjust their hedging policies, thereby potentially putting further downward pressure on the currency pair." In the first half of 2025, the Canadian dollar has risen more than 5% against the US dollar, marking the best start in nearly a decade. Dow & Ming strategists predict that the Canadian dollar will continue to rise. They forecast that by December, the Canadian dollar will rise to 1.31 against the US dollar, the strongest level since 2022, an increase of about 4% from the current level of about 1.3665. The Dow & Ming team estimates that Canadian pension funds - some of which have explicit policies on under-hedging US assets - have a hedging ratio of about 10% to 15% for their positions. Overall, Canadian investors hold about $1.8 trillion in US stocks. Analysts wrote that a marginal increase of 5% in hedging ratios could result in approximately $90 billion in selling pressure against the US dollar. Trump: Immediately terminate all trade negotiations with Canada. US President Trump wrote on social media, "We just learned that Canada (a country that is very difficult to trade with) has been imposing tariffs of up to 400% on our farmers for dairy products for years - and has just announced a digital service tax on American tech companies, which is a direct and blatant attack on the United States. Obviously, they are emulating the European Union, which has previously taken the same action and is currently negotiating with us on this matter. Given this malicious tax, I hereby announce the immediate termination of all trade negotiations with Canada and will inform Canada of the tariffs that will be imposed on trade between Canada and the US in the next seven days." US Treasury Secretary Beisant downplays speculation about Trump's early nomination of Fed chair. US Treasury Secretary Beisant downplays speculation about Trump possibly nominating the next Federal Reserve chair early. However, he believes that under certain circumstances, a candidate may emerge in October or November. Beisant, in an interview on Friday, was asked about whether Trump would nominate a so-called shadow Fed chair, to which he replied: "I don't think anyone feels the need to talk about this issue right now." Beisant noted that there are two vacancies on the Federal Reserve Board early next year: Adriana Kugler's term ends in January, and Powell's chairmanship ends in May. Powell's term as a Federal Reserve Board member will last until 2028. He recently declined to say whether he will remain on the board after his chairmanship expires. Beisant said, "Chairman Powell does not have to leave the Federal Reserve, even if he is no longer chairman, he can still remain on the board." If this situation occurs and Trump chooses not to select a new chair from the existing board members, Kugler's successor will also be the next Federal Reserve chair, as mentioned by Beisant. He said, "People who are hopeful of becoming the next chair may be appointed in January, which means that nominations may be made in October or November." Trump: All work on lifting sanctions on Iran has been stopped. US President Trump wrote on social media, "Khamenei clearly knows he is lying and yet he has the audacity and stupidity to claim that he won the war with Israel. I know exactly where he hides - I could have had Israel or the most powerful US military end his life. I saved him! For the past few days, I have been studying the possibility of lifting sanctions, which could have given Iran a better chance for a comprehensive and rapid recovery - sanctions are causing serious harm! However, instead, I received statements full of anger, hatred, and disdain, so I immediately stopped all work on lifting sanctions. Iran must rejoin the world order, otherwise their situation will only get worse. I hope the Iranian leadership understands that honey often gets more than vinegar." [Individual Stock News] Meta (META.US) seeks $29 billion in financing, fully betting on AI data center construction. According to the Financial Times, Meta is seeking to raise $29 billion to fund its comprehensive advancement in the AI business, and for this, it will seek help from private equity companies to fund its data center construction in the United States. According to sources, Meta has made progress in negotiations with private credit investors, including several large institutions such as Apollo Global Management Inc, KKR, Brookfield, Carlyle Group Inc, and The Pacific Investment Management Company. Meta hopes to raise $3 billion from them in equity and then raise $26 billion in debt. However, the company is discussing how to build a large-scale debt financing structure as it is considering various options to complete one of the largest private financing of this size. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS.US) rose over 2.9% after hours, large Wall Street banks pass Federal Reserve stress tests, laying the foundation for dividends. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. stock rose 2.92% after hours, Wells Fargo & Company rose 1.89%, Bank of America Corp rose 1.36%, JPMorgan Chase rose 0.48%, Morgan Stanley rose 0.40%, and Citigroup rose 0.38%. The bank industry ETF rose 0.59% after hours, and the financial industry ETF and regional bank ETF also rose at least 0.24%. 22 large US banks passed the Federal Reserve's annual stress test, indicating that they can withstand severe economic downturns and lay the foundation for increased buybacks and dividends. The test results show that even under the assumed economic recession scenario, these banks can withstand losses exceeding $550 billion and maintain a common equity tier 1 capital ratio higher than the minimum requirement of 4.5%.