Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures rise together, the Federal Reserve's most favored inflation indicator is about to be announced.

Pre-market market trends 1. On June 27 (Friday), before the market opened, the futures of the three major US stock indexes rose together. As of the report, Dow Jones futures rose 0.30%, S&P 500 index futures rose 0.27%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.31%. 2. As of the report, Germany's DAX index rose by 0.77%, the UK's FTSE 100 index rose by 0.56%, France's CAC 40 index rose by 1.30%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index rose by 0.93%. 3. As of the report, WTI crude oil rose by 0.34% to $65.46 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 0.21% to $66.83 per barrel. Market news The Fed's favorite inflation indicator is about to be released! The month-on-month core PCE inflation rate for May is expected to remain moderate. The Fed's favored inflation indicator, the core PCE price index, will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday. Although the month-on-month increase in the core PCE price index and the overall PCE price index for May is expected to remain at the same level as in April, the year-on-year increases in both indicators are expected to expand. Economists generally expect the core PCE price index, which excludes the more volatile energy and food prices, to rise by 0.1% month-on-month, the same as the previous value; the month-on-month increase in the overall PCE price index for May is also expected to remain at 0.1%. However, the core PCE price index for May is expected to rise by 2.6% year-on-year, higher than the 2.5% in April; the overall PCE price index for May is expected to rise by 2.3% year-on-year, higher than the 2.1% in April. Market expectations disappointed? Fed officials intensively downplay July rate cuts. Recently, a number of US economic data have strengthened expectations of policy easing, with traders continuing to increase their bets on a Fed rate cut. Currently, the interest rate swap market has fully priced in two more rate cuts for this year, with the probability of the third rate cut being included in expectations on Thursday. However, several Fed officials this week still clearly stated that they need more time to confirm that tariff-induced price increases will not continue to push up inflation. San Francisco Fed President Daly admitted that she is seeing more and more evidence that tariffs may not lead to a large or sustained surge in inflation. But this only makes her open to the idea of a "fall rate cut." Daly stated that although the labor market is slowing down, there are no signs of significant deterioration, reiterating her view that current monetary policy is in a "good position." Boston Fed President Collins said in an interview on Thursday, "We will only have one month of new data before the July meeting, I hope to see more information." She expects rate cuts to resume later this year. "It may be one rate cut, or more, but ultimately the data will decide, and there is no sense of urgency now." Richmond Fed President Barkin mentioned that he expects tariffs to put upward pressure on prices. Given the many uncertainties, the central bank should wait for clearer signals before adjusting interest rates. Chicago Fed President Evans said that if inflation clearly trends towards the 2% target and uncertainty about economic prospects diminishes, the central bank may resume rate cuts, "I am optimistic that we have received positive data, perhaps the impact of tariffs will be limited, but we still need confirmation." Earlier, Powell testified to a congressional panel that if not for the uncertainty about future prices due to tariffs, the Fed may have already started cutting rates due to the downward trend in inflation. But there is currently no need to rush policy adjustments. Market concerns about political interference are increasing, with the White House denying plans to accelerate the replacement of the Fed chairman. As market concerns grow that Trump may take unconventional measures to weaken the influence of the Fed chairman, the White House on Thursday denied rumors of accelerating the appointment of a new Fed chairman. "Decisions about replacing the Fed chairman are not imminent, but the president certainly has the right to change his mind at any time," a White House official told the media. The official also said that Trump "has many excellent candidates to consider." The term of the current Fed chairman Powell ends in May next year. If the president announces a successor ahead of time, the market may view it as an attempt to establish a "shadow Fed chairman." A "shadow chairman" refers to a nominee who has not yet formally taken office but exerts influence on monetary policy behind the scenes. This move could weaken the Fed's credibility as an independent institution. JPMorgan's model gives a green light! The probability of a rise in US stocks in the second half of the year is close to 100%. JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou recently stated in a report to clients that his team has updated a stock prediction model, which currently predicts a rise in the stock market in the second half of this year. The model uses six signals - economic momentum, pricing momentum, trading volume, value, position, and fund flow - to predict the trend of the S&P 500 index in the next six months. The latest reading is quite confident that the stock market will rise. The strategist pointed out: "The current probability of 96% is far higher than the critical value of 75%, which means that based on the model input, the probability of a fall in the S&P 500 index in the next six months is very low." Lutnick expects the signing of a trade agreement between 10 countries soon! The White House says the July tariff deadline can be changed. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Friday that the White House is about to reach a series of agreements with ten major trading partners. Lutnick also said in an interview that Trump is preparing to finalize a series of trade agreements in the next two weeks, in order to comply with the final deadline of July 9 to reinstate high tariffs. Trump also said that if an agreement cannot be reached in time, he will ultimately issue a "letter" to the relevant countries, setting out the trade terms directly. Lutnick added that countries will be classified into "appropriate categories" on July 9. However, Trump may also extend the deadline to allow for more negotiating time. The White House said on Thursday that Trump may extend the deadline to restore high tariffs on goods from most countries worldwide. White House press secretary Levitt told reporters that the deadlines set by Trump for resuming tariffs on July 8 and 9 are "not important" and "may be extended, but this requires a decision by the president." Stock news NIKE, Inc. Class B (NKE.US) reported $11 billion in revenue in the fourth quarter, and executives released optimistic signals. NIKE, Inc. Class B's latest disclosed financial data for the fourth quarter show that the company achieved revenue of $11 billion, down 12% year-on-year, but 3.8% higher than the market's forecast of $10.72 billion; the adjusted earnings per share decreased by 86% to $0.14, but still beat expectations by 2 cents. Although sales in North America, Greater China, and Europe, Middle East, and Africa all saw double-digit declines, the actual decreases were within the expected range. NIKE, Inc. Class B stated that the downward trend in full-year sales is beginning to ease, indicating that CEO Elliot Hill's strategic initiatives are taking effect. The company predicts that the revenue decline in the first quarter will be less than analysts' expectations. In addition, executives at the company's earnings call stated that the comprehensive tariffs imposed by US President Trump on major trading partners could increase NIKE, Inc. Class B's costs by approximately $1 billion. As of the report, NIKE, Inc. Class B had risen by over 9% in pre-market trading on Friday. European sales have declined for five consecutive months, and Musk fires Tesla, Inc.'s (TSLA.US) North American and European business leaders. According to reports citing sources, Tesla, Inc. CEO Elon Musk, dissatisfied with the company's performance and declining market prominence, has fired the company's North American and European business leader, Omead Afshar, for the second time this month, highlighting Musk's sweeping reforms to boost Tesla, Inc.'s global sales, especially in the European market. Tesla, Inc.'s overall electric vehicle sales in Europe have seen a significant decline for five consecutive months, with a decrease of about 28% in May compared to May 2024. As a comparison, demand for electric vehicles in Europe has increased. Toyota (TM.US) breaks sales records for the third consecutive month under the pressure of tariffs! Global sales in May reached about 956,000 units, a new high. Despite facing huge losses due to the additional tariffs imposed by US President Trump on imported cars, Toyota Motor Corp. Sponsored ADR achieved a new record for the third consecutive month in May, thanks to strong demand for hybrid models in the US, Japan, and China markets. Data released by Toyota on Friday shows that the global sales in May totaled 955,532 units, an 8% year-on-year increase; global production was 906,984 units. Toyota and its subsidiary brands Daihatsu Motor Co. and Hino Motors Ltd. saw sales increase by over 4% in the Japanese market, 7% in the Chinese market, and 11% in the North American market. It is worth mentioning that major Japanese automakers rely heavily on the US market, and if negotiations with the White House do not reduce tariff levels, they will face billions of dollars in losses. As of the report, Toyota Motor Corp. Sponsored ADR had risen by over 2% in pre-market trading on Friday. The UK antitrust regulator is investigating the Boeing Company (BA.US) deal with Spirit (SPR.US). The UK Competition and Markets Authority announced on Thursday that it is assessing whether Boeing Company's proposed acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems could harm market competition in the UK or other regions. The CMA has not yet launched a formal investigation but is seeking stakeholder opinions by July 15 to help determine the next steps. Boeing Company had divested its core manufacturing base in Wichita and Oklahoma in 2005. Nearly twenty years later, this aviation giant is re-integrating Spirit through a $4.7 billion all-stock transaction to strengthen production control and address quality issues. At the same time, Airbus Group completed an agreement earlier this year to acquire specific manufacturing facilities related to its aircraft projects. CoreWeave (CRWV.US) once again seeks to acquire Core Scientific (CORZ.US) to expand its cloud computing power map. According to reports, after a failed acquisition attempt last year, AI newcomer CoreWeave once again launched an acquisition bid for AI server provider Core Scientific. These two companies have similar trajectories on their business paths: both initially operated as cryptocurrency mining data centers. After the cryptocurrency market collapsed in 2018, CoreWeave rapidly transformed into an AI data center and experienced explosive growth, with revenue increasing from $16 million in 2022 to $1.9 billion in 2024, becoming a star enterprise in the AI computing power rental field. Now, Core Scientific is also starting to transition into the AI industry. As demand for AI cloud services outpaces supply, CoreWeave sought to rapidly expand capacity through Core Scientific a year ago. In 2025, CoreWeave still adheres to the same logic: to continue to seize the AI server cloud rental market. As of the report, Core Scientific had risen by over 5% in pre-market trading on Friday. Important economic data and events forecast 20:30 Beijing time - US May PCE Price Index 20:30 Beijing time - US May Personal Spending Rate 21:15 Beijing time - FOMC Voting Member and Cleveland Fed President Harker, and Fed Governor Brainard attend the "Fed Listens" event 22:00 Beijing time - Final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for June