JP Morgan lowers Apple Inc.'s (AAPL.US) target price: Mid-term revenue and profit growth will slow down, macro headwinds still exist.

JPMorgan maintains its "overweight" rating on Apple Inc. (AAPL.US), but has lowered its target price from $240 to $230, citing a slowdown in mid-term revenue and profit growth, as well as unfavorable macroeconomic factors. Analysts at JP Morgan, led by Samik Chatterjee, stated that they have updated their revenue and profit forecasts for Apple Inc. to reflect the impact of the early release of consumer demand for iPhones in the short term, which is expected to lead to a weakening of demand drivers in the second half of this year, especially in the context of only minor upgrades expected in the iPhone 17 series. The analysts added that due to continued macroeconomic uncertainty, as well as the demand release from the pre-tariff anticipation rush and smartphone subsidies in China that have supported consumer spending, they are downgrading their demand expectations for the iPhone 17 series. They also noted their more pessimistic view on the sales outlook for the iPhone 17 series in contrast to their more optimistic expectations for the iPhone 18 cycle the iPhone 18 series is expected to introduce foldable phones and make further progress in the long-awaited AI features. The analysts stated that this adjustment means that their expectations for Apple Inc.'s revenue growth for the 2026 fiscal year are only a mild single-digit percentage increase, with a stronger revenue growth expected in the 2027 fiscal year. For investors looking to capitalize on the potential rise in AI edge feature adoption, this will form the basis of their investment logic. In addition to demand factors, the analysts also anticipate that Apple Inc.'s faster transition of iPhone assembly supply chains to India to service the US market could alleviate initial concerns of margin pressure for investors. However, the analysts also expect tariff pressure to prompt the company to raise prices, which will limit the sales growth momentum of the upcoming iPhone 17 series. The analysts pointed out that in addition to lowering profit forecasts, they have also slightly reduced the valuation multiples from the current trading levels to reflect the possibility of downside risks to mid-term profit expectations. They stated that despite this, the recent demand drivers remain strong, partly due to the support of smartphone subsidies in China, which also bodes well for Apple Inc.'s strong financial performance in the third quarter of the 2025 fiscal year.