Robotaxi craze fails to hide "automobile winter"? Wall Street warns of poor performance of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) Q2 deliveries.

Against the backdrop of the promotion of robotaxis in Austin, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) is less than a week away from releasing its second-quarter delivery report. Market expectations for deliveries have dropped to 393,000 vehicles, lower than the 443,956 deliveries in the same period last year, but higher than the 336,681 deliveries in the first quarter. Tesla, Inc.'s quarterly delivery record is 495,570 units, expected to be achieved in the fourth quarter of 2024. Investment bank Baird has lowered its second-quarter delivery forecast to 377,000 vehicles. Analyst Ben Kallo pointed out that soft third-party data performance since May, as well as the resumption of production for the new Model Y (which is still slightly ongoing this quarter), may lead to poor performance in the data. Kallo wrote: "Although delivery volume is still an important component of the fundamentals, we note that the recent launch of robotaxi services and people's keen anticipation of this opportunity may dominate in the short term. We believe that launching a more affordable model may have a negative impact on net profit in the second half of 2025." At the same time, analysts at Barclays PLC Sponsored ADR predict that Tesla, Inc. will deliver around 375,000 electric vehicles in the second quarter of 2025, while UBS Group AG predicts a delivery volume of 366,000 vehicles for that quarter. UBS Group AG stated in the report that due to investors focusing on Tesla, Inc.'s robotaxi robotaxi service, many bulls are expected to "overlook" electric vehicle delivery data, as they believe that the value of Tesla, Inc. stock lies in artificial intelligence (Siasun Robot&Automation taxi and humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation). But UBS Group AG emphasized that Tesla, Inc.'s current financial performance mainly depends on the automotive business. This business not only helps provide funds for cutting-edge businesses but also injects a higher premium into already expensive AI options as the stock price rises and the prospects of the automotive business deteriorate, although supporting data is scarce. UBS Group AG said that an unexpectedly low delivery volume report could be a reality check. Historical data shows that failure to meet delivery expectations will cause Tesla, Inc. stock to decline, but the abnormality of the previous quarter should be heeded: despite deliveries being 11% lower than market expectations, Tesla's stock price rose against the trend by 5%, marking the largest deviation since 2022. This may indicate that Tesla, Inc. has further entered the world where "automotive fundamentals are not important." Seeking Alpha analyst Jonathan Weber said: "In the first quarter, poor delivery volume was attributed by Tesla, Inc. to problems with the Model Y. If the data in the second quarter doesn't improve significantly, then the reason of the Model Y problem no longer holdsthat will indicate a serious ongoing demand issue for Tesla, Inc. Recent regional data from China and some European countries suggests that overall delivery volume in the second quarter is likely to disappoint, so investors may need to be prepared for bad news." Oakoff Investments pointed out: "Current market trends indicate that the delivery volume in the second quarter should be similar to the first quarter of fiscal 2025, but the latest data from China shows that actual numbers may once again fall below expectations... Competition in the industry is clearly intensifying, especially in China. On the other hand, there are some signs of weakness in Tesla, Inc.'s sales market in Europe... However, historically, delivery volumes in the second quarter are almost always higher than in the first quarter, so the second quarter is likely to be on par with the first quarter (or even slightly higher, despite a double-digit year-on-year decline), thereby alleviating the market's already lowered expectations."