EB Securities: Accelerated construction of domestic low-orbit constellations, perovskite may become a breakthrough in cost reduction.

EB SECURITIES released a research report stating that modular and standardized manufacturing of small satellites is more in line with the demand for "dense launch, rapid network replenishment" in low-orbit constellation construction, improving constellation deployment efficiency and reducing coverage costs, gradually becoming an industry trend. China's policy highly values the construction of the commercial aerospace industry, with domestic constellation projects such as "Star Network" and "Qianfan" already beginning to launch satellites in bulk, and the development pace of low-orbit satellites is expected to significantly accelerate. Compared to international advanced levels, China's commercial aerospace industry urgently needs to reduce costs, with perovskite potentially becoming a breakthrough for low-orbit satellite energy systems. EB SECURITIES main points are as follows: Global low-orbit satellite deployment accelerates, with SpaceX leading the way Currently, leading companies in the United States, UK, Canada, Germany, Russia, South Korea, China, and other countries have announced large-scale constellation plans, which will lead to a peak in the launch of tens of thousands of satellites worldwide in the next few years. SpaceX has efficient deployment capabilities for low-orbit constellations, making it a global leader in the field. By 2024, SpaceX's production capacity will reach 5,000 user terminals per week, with 120 satellites produced monthly and an average of one launch every 9 days. Domestic constellation construction enters the fast lane, with projects like "Star Network" and "Qianfan" already launching satellites in bulk The Two Sessions government work report positions commercial aerospace as an emerging industry, and specific policies have been introduced in Beijing, Shanghai, Hainan, and other areas to promote the formation of commercial aerospace industry clusters. Currently, representative domestic constellation projects include China's "Star Network" constellation and Yuin's "Qianfan" constellation. The "Star Network" constellation plans to deploy a total of 12,992 satellites, with 46 satellites already launched and an estimated completion of about 10% of satellite launches by 2030, followed by the completion of the remaining approximately 10,000 satellites within the next five years; The "Qianfan" constellation plans to deploy over 15,000 satellites, with 18 satellites already launched in five batches, for a total of 90 satellites in orbit. The launch plan is to complete 648 launches by the end of 2025, providing regional network coverage; by the end of 2027, complete the first phase of construction with a total of 1,296 satellites to provide global network coverage; by the end of 2030, complete the networking of over 15,000 low-orbit satellites. Satellite miniaturization is an industry trend, with China's commercial aerospace urgently needing to reduce costs Modular and standardized manufacturing of small satellites is more in line with the demand for "dense launch, rapid network replenishment" in low-orbit constellation construction, improving constellation deployment efficiency and reducing coverage costs, gradually becoming an industry trend. From a cost perspective, compared to SpaceX's advanced level, China's commercial aerospace still has a significant gap in satellite manufacturing and launch: 1) The manufacturing cost of Starlink satellites is $500,000 per unit, approximately 3.5 million RMB per unit, while the manufacturing cost of domestic low-orbit communication satellites is approximately 30 million RMB per unit, about 8.5 times that of Starlink. 2) SpaceX's "Falcon 9" launch cost per unit mass is approximately $2700/kg; while China is still in the process of researching and developing reusable rocket technology, the current pricing of domestic private rockets is still in the range of 80,000 to 110,000 RMB per kilogram, significantly higher than the international advanced level. Perovskite potential to become a breakthrough for low-orbit satellite energy systems The cost of satellite power systems accounts for about 22% of the satellite platform cost. With the increasing deployment area of CECEP Solar Energy batteries, the proportion it occupies in the overall satellite manufacturing cost is gradually increasing, becoming a key factor limiting the cost control and rapid deployment of commercial aerospace craft. Currently, gallium arsenide batteries are still the main source of energy for commercial aerospace craft, with the main market still concentrated in military and high-end aerospace sectors, with low commercial penetration. The reason for this is that gallium arsenide raw materials are expensive, with unit power costs reaching over 1,000 RMB per W, severely impacting the overall economy. The power-to-weight ratio of gallium arsenide batteries is about 0.4W/g, compared to perovskite CECEP Solar Energy batteries, which can achieve a power-to-weight ratio of up to 23 W/g, requiring only about 43.5 kg in weight for the same power generation, a weight reduction of over 98%. Investment recommendation China's policy highly values the construction of the commercial aerospace industry, with domestic constellation projects such as "Star Network" and "Qianfan" already beginning to launch satellites in bulk, and the development pace of low-orbit satellites is expected to significantly accelerate. Compared to international advanced levels, China's commercial aerospace urgently needs to reduce costs, with perovskite potentially becoming a breakthrough for low-orbit satellite energy systems. Shanghai Geoharbour Construction Group Co., Ltd. has a forward-looking layout in the satellite field and related business in perovskite, with advanced technology and reliable products, the company's energy system products have assisted in the successful launch of 15 satellites, with over 40 sets of satellite power systems and solar panels operating stably in orbit. It is recommended to pay attention to: Shanghai Geoharbour Construction Group Co., Ltd. (605598.SH). Risk analysis The speed of technological research and development may not meet expectations, and the progress of low-orbit satellite constellation construction may fall short of expectations.