The biggest risk in the market has arrived? Israel attacks Iran's largest natural gas field, leading to conflict expanding to oil and gas facilities.
This is Israel's first attack on Iran's energy infrastructure, and the first time a refinery in Iran has been targeted since the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. Iran's natural gas is mainly used domestically, but the attack still represents a significant escalation. Analysis suggests that Israel is currently attempting to limit the impact on the international market and potential chain reactions with this "limited escalation" strategy. Whether this approach can continue depends entirely on the intensity of Iran's response.
When the war fires spread to Iran's core energy artery, the global market is holding its breath in anticipation of an upgrade that could reshape the energy landscape in the Middle East.
According to CCTV news, two refineries in Bushehr Province in southern Iran were attacked by Israeli airstrikes on the 14th. The facilities of the South Pars Refinery Phase 14 Project exploded and caught fire, and the Fajr Jam Refinery was also attacked. The crisis management department official in Bushehr Province was quoted by the Islamic Republic News Agency as saying that the fires at the two facilities had been brought under control on the evening of the 14th, with no reports of casualties.
This is the first direct strike by Israel on Iranian energy infrastructure, and the first attack on a refinery within Iran since the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. Analysts believe that Israel is currently trying to limit the impact on the international market and the chain reaction, and whether this "limited upgrade" strategy can continue depends entirely on the intensity of Iran's response.
Iran's energy lifeline is attacked
The South Pars gas field is the largest natural gas field in the world, accounting for about two-thirds of Iran's natural gas supply, and is the core of Iran's energy security. The attack resulted in a fire at one unit of the Phase 14 project, forcing a production platform offshore to shut down, with a daily production loss of 12 million cubic meters of natural gas.
Reports indicate that a fire also occurred at the Fajr Jam gas plant, one of Iran's largest gas processing plants responsible for processing fuel from South Pars, Namr, and Kangan oil fields. The cause of the fire at Fajr Jam has not been officially reported, but initial assessments suggest that it was caused by hostile unmanned drones.
Iran's natural gas is mainly used for domestic consumption and is rarely exported, meaning that this attack mainly impacts Iran's domestic energy system. However, analysts warn that this "precision sanction" style of attack may signal the advent of a larger-scale energy war.
Although the damage to the natural gas facilities may be limited to Iran's domestic energy system, the escalation of the situation could still lead to further volatility in oil futures when trading resumes after the weekend. U.S. crude oil prices spiked 14% on Friday, ultimately closing at around $73 per barrel.
Brown's, head of Energy Aspects, said, "Israel is seeking economic targets, but at least for now is attempting to limit the impact on the international market and chain reactions to avoid alienating allies." However, whether this "limited upgrade" strategy can continue depends entirely on the intensity of Iran's response.
This attack may further weaken Iran's already fragile energy industry. The country is facing the most severe power outage in decades, with the economy suffering greatly, plunging this resource-rich country further into crisis. According to the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines, and Agriculture, the power outage is causing Iran's economy to lose about $250 million per day.
The shadow of Abqaiq in 2019 reappears
"This is a major escalation." Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy, commented, "This may be the most severe attack on oil and gas infrastructure since the Abqaiq attack."
The Abqaiq attack in 2019 caused a major oil processing plant in Saudi Arabia to briefly shut down, leading to severe fluctuations in international oil prices at the time.
Now, this scene is replaying in Iran, but the background is more complex. Iran, as OPEC's third-largest oil-producing country, has its energy infrastructure security directly related to the stability of the global energy supply chain. More worrying is that this strike may be just the beginning, not the end.
This article is sourced from "Wall Street View" by author Xu Chao and edited by GMTEight: Chen Qiuda.
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