Geopolitical panic intensifies as oil prices surge due to conflict in Iran, potentially leading to a "death spiral".

Israel launched attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities and ballistic missile bases early Friday morning, prompting Iran to vow to impose a "harsh blow" on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government and the United States - even though the U.S. denies involvement in the operation. The large-scale attack that swept Iran resulted in a surge in oil prices, targeting nuclear facilities and senior military commanders. According to Iran's state television, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Hossein Salami has been killed in the attack. Here are the summaries of the views of geopolitical experts, including their analysis of the situation: Andrea Stricker (Deputy Director and Research Fellow, Defense Democracy Fund WMD and Bio Defense Project) "To destroy these facilities, fighter jets need to continuously drop bombs or launch missiles for several days. Ideally, heavy bunker buster bombs should be used to penetrate the facilities. For example, the Fordow uranium enrichment plant is approximately 60 to 90 meters deep, and Iran's newly mentioned enrichment plant near Natanz is located under a mountain with a depth of over 100 meters." "To destroy or disable Iran's nuclear program and set it back for months to years, real heavy bombs and sustained bombing operations are needed." "Ideally, the U.S. should be involved, as it still possesses the heaviest bunker buster bombs, but Israel also has the capability to independently carry out strikes." Regarding Iran's retaliation: "Iran may target military bases and facilities, but if its intention is to impose terror on the populace, attacking civilian cities and central areas is also a possibility." "If Iran retaliates, the U.S. may intervene as it did in April and October 2024." Rodger Shanahan (Middle East expert, former Australian Army officer) He discussed the worst-case scenario of Iran's retaliation: "If Iran launches indiscriminate attacks on Israeli civilian areas, it will cross a red line, leading to an irreversible 'escalating spiral'. If it targets Israeli military bases, nuclear facilities personnel, or senior military officers - a 'tit for tat retaliation,' the situation can still be controlled. But indiscriminate attacks will lead to a 'death spiral' in the situation." Mara Rudman (Professor at the University of Virginia, former Deputy Special Envoy and Chief of Staff for the U.S. State Department's Middle East Peace Team) She said in an interview: "Given Israel's concerns, the objective of eliminating Iran's nuclear weapons capability, and the limitations of Israel's existing military means, this operation is unlikely to be a 'one-time strike.' It should be expected to be a long-lasting operation with Iran responding in various ways." Bilahari Kausikan (Former Permanent Secretary of the Singapore Foreign Ministry, former President of the Middle East Institute) "I think the conflict will be limited to the regional level, with most Sunni Arab countries covertly supporting Israel. Although Iran may retaliate through global terrorist attacks, the conflict will not escalate into a larger war unless a major power openly supports Iran. However, the U.S. and its allies will not play this role, Russia is deeply embroiled in the Ukraine crisis, and China's political, diplomatic, and military policies in the Middle East are more symbolic despite being an important economic player in the Gulf region." "How bad will the situation get? I think it won't get too out of control. Iran's missile attacks on Israel last year did not cause significant damage, and their front-line defense forces Hezbollah and Hamas have already been heavily hit. Tehran may cause more damage to Israel this time and attack non-military targets in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Gulf shipping, but it won't lead to a catastrophic end-of-the-world disaster." Nicole Grajewski (Research Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Nuclear Policy Project, social media post) "In the worst-case scenario, the current situation is approaching - US-Iran negotiations are ongoing (regardless of progress), and Israel acts alone three days before US-Iran negotiations, targeting Iran's military leadership and causing civilian casualties." "Iran's retaliation may depend on several factors: the scale of civilian casualties, whether core political or military leaders are targeted, and the extent of conventional and nuclear capabilities being damaged. I think Iran may attack Israeli civilian targets." Jeffrey Lewis (Professor at Middlebury College, social media post) Regarding the impact of the attack on Iran's nuclear program: "If Israel acts alone, I don't see how this can have a long-term effect unless there are special or unexpected means in its operations. It is now believed that Israel's strategy is more to try to shake the Iranian regime rather than destroy the nuclear program - this is a gamble for Israel." Ankit Panda (Senior Research Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Stanton, social media post) "Israel claims its objective is not regime change, but precise strikes on nuclear capabilities, but if some of Iran's rumored targets (including the National Security Council members) are true, it's hard not to see this as a broader political war. The situation is really very dangerous."