In May, the Employment Trends Index in the United States fell, but the labor market still shows resilience.

On Monday, the latest Employment Trends Index (ETI) released by the Conference Board in the United States. The data shows that the index for May 2025 dropped to 107.49, slightly lower than the revised figure of 108.00 in April. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite indicator predicting changes in non-farm employment. A rise in the index usually indicates a higher likelihood of employment growth, while a decrease may suggest a slowdown in employment. The turning point of the index often implies a shift in the trend of employment growth or decrease in the coming months. Economist Mitchell Barnes of the Conference Board stated: "Despite widespread concerns about tariff issues, the May ETI remains above the average level from 2017 to 2019, indicating that the overall labor market remains stable. However, compared to the beginning of 2025, the momentum of the index's growth is slowing down." Some sub-indicators in May reflect potential pressures in the labor market. For example, initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 235,000, reaching the highest level since July 2024; and in consumer confidence surveys, the proportion of respondents who believe "jobs are hard to find" rose to 18.6%, the fourth consecutive month of increase, matching the high point in 2024. Meanwhile, the percentage of small businesses that believe "positions cannot be filled at the present" remained at 34%, the lowest level since September of last year. Despite market confidence being impacted by uncertainty, the overall recruitment activity in May remained relatively balanced. Barnes pointed out: "However, we are beginning to observe softness in some industries, which may indicate that potential pressures from tariff adjustments are starting to show." Employment in the temporary staffing industry decreased by 20,200 in May, one of the few sectors showing significant changes in an otherwise stable employment report. So far this year, the temporary staffing industry has seen net decreases in four out of five months, totaling 41,600 job losses. In addition, the percentage of involuntary part-time workers decreased slightly to 17% in May, down from the peak of 18% in February, but still higher than the average level in 2024. Although the number of job vacancies rose in April, it is expected to decline in May, in line with the trend shown in online recruitment data. Barnes further noted: "Despite a somewhat pessimistic outlook from businesses and consumers regarding the labor market outlook, the data for May does not indicate a comprehensive deterioration in employment conditions. While facing potential pressures in trade-related industries, the current high employment rate and wage growth provide a certain buffer for the overall economy." The decline in the Employment Trends Index this month was mainly influenced by negative impacts from four of the eight component indicators, which are: the proportion of respondents who believe "jobs are hard to find", the number of employees in the temporary staffing industry, initial claims for unemployment benefits, and the number of job vacancies. The Employment Trends Index combines eight forward-looking employment-related indicators in their respective fields. By synthesizing these indicators, the index can more effectively filter out the noise of individual data, thus presenting a clearer picture of the basic trends in the labor market. These eight leading employment indicators include: the proportion of respondents who believe "jobs are hard to find" in consumer confidence surveys, initial claims for unemployment benefits, the proportion of small businesses that believe positions "cannot be filled at the present", the number of employees in the temporary staffing industry, the percentage of involuntary part-time workers, the number of job vacancies, industrial production, and real manufacturing and trade sales volume.