The stock market's strongest "alpha" AI computing power is well-deserved! Huang Renxun predicts that Blackwell's demand will reach a record high.
AI computing power can be considered as the "ultimate alpha"! NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun optimistically predicts a sharp increase in revenue, and expects Blackwell to accelerate global economic transformation.
The CEO of NVIDIA Corporation, known as the "Leather Jacket Swordsman," Huang Renxun, has eased investors' concerns about a significant decline in NVIDIA Corporation's market share in China by releasing more robust Blackwell series AI chip sales expectations than the market generally expected. He is extremely optimistic and predicts that the Blackwell series will set a record for the strongest AI chip sales ever, driving the artificial intelligence computing infrastructure market to "exponential growth."
According to Wall Street giants Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Corp, and global asset management behemoth BlackRock, Inc., the performance of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR, ASML Holding NV ADR, and Anfennuo alongside NVIDIA Corporation continues to show a explosive expansion in demand for AI computing power, making it the "strongest alpha" in the stock market even the export restrictions imposed by the U.S. government on China and the new round of tariff wars led by Trump have not stopped the surge in global demand for AI computing power dominated by Amazon.com, Inc., Microsoft Corporation, Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR, and Alphabet Inc. Class C.
Analysts from BlackRock, Inc. and Morgan Stanley have recently urged investors to maintain a moderate exposure to AI-driven stocks (or buy on dips if not exposed), despite recent drastic fluctuations in global trade policies. BlackRock, Inc. still emphasizes that despite the Trump administration's new aggressive global tariff policies, the outlook for AI computing power demand and the long-term investment return growth potential of the so-called "AI investment logic" remains "intact."
In the view of BlackRock, Inc.'s stock analysis team, the pressure from the tariff policy led by the Trump administration cannot stop the "excess alpha attributes" brought by the AI investment logic. BlackRock, Inc. advises investors to continue to allocate to AI-driven stocks, believing that these stocks have strong "alpha attributes" the probability of outperforming the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq 100 index, and will yield much higher returns compared to other popular sectors like consumer, energy, and mining. For example, the "AI chip leader" has rebounded by nearly 50% since its low point in April, far outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices.
The latest ratings and target prices of Wall Street analysts compiled by TIPRANKS show that the consensus rating for NVIDIA Corporation stock is "strong buy"; the average target price within 12 months is as high as $164, implying a potential upside of 21%; the highest target price is even up to $200.
NVIDIA Corporation's performance outlook anticipates total revenues of around $45 billion for the second quarter (ending in July). New export restrictions imposed by the U.S. government will result in NVIDIA Corporation losing approximately $8 billion in revenue from the Chinese market, but this expectation, including the loss in the Chinese market, still meets the expectations of Wall Street analysts. The overall performance is in line with the performance of the chip leader Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR, indicating that tariffs have not had any negative impact on demand for AI chips and other computing infrastructure. This helped push the stock price up by about 4% in after-hours trading on Wednesday.
Resisting the pressure of export restrictions! Data center business dominated by Blackwell leads NVIDIA Corporation's performance growth
This much more optimistic outlook than the market expected shows that NVIDIA Corporation is ramping up production of its new generation AI chip productsthe Blackwell architecture AI GPUand striving to rapidly expand capacity for the more advanced and powerful Blackwell Ultra architecture AI GPU in the second quarter. NVIDIA Corporation's Blackwell series AI chip productscomprising Blackwell and the most advanced architecture AI chip, Blackwell Ultrahave replaced the incredibly hot-demand Hopper architecture AI GPU in recent years, becoming the biggest contributor to NVIDIA Corporation's performance growth in the first half of the year and will be the strongest DRIVE for NVIDIA Corporation's performance growth in the near future.
This AI chip leadernow the world's largest revenue and market capitalization chip companydominates the entire AI computing infrastructure field, with these chip components being crucial for developing and running large AI models. NVIDIA Corporation's increasingly rich hardware and software product lineup is allowing NVIDIA Corporation to sell larger-scale products to customers.
As part of this push, the company offers its AI chip products as a full AI computing system.NVIDIA Corporation stated that this is necessary to accelerate the deployment of more complex and powerful AI technologies. NVIDIA Corporation CEO Jensen Huang predicted that AI computing infrastructure will ultimately change the global economy."Today, every country sees AI as the core of the next industrial revolution - an emerging industry that continuously produces intelligence and critical infrastructure for every economy worldwide," Huang Renxun said during a performance conference call with analysts.
For the first fiscal quarter ending on April 27th, NVIDIA Corporation's overall revenue increased by 69% year-on-year, reaching $44.1 billion, while analysts' average estimate was $43.3 billion.
This growth rate is enviable for most chip companies, although it is the lowest percentage increase for NVIDIA Corporation in two years. Excluding certain items, earnings per share were $0.96, above Wall Street's expectation of $0.93.
With strong contributions from the Blackwell architecture AI GPU, the sales for the Data Center business division reached $39.1 billion, surpassing the revenue total of NVIDIA Corporation's recent competitors, including Intel Corporation and AMD, but was slightly lower than analysts' average estimate of $39.2 billion. Revenue related to gaming - once the main business for NVIDIA Corporation - was approximately $3.8 billion, with analysts' average forecast at $28.5 billion. Automotive business revenue was around $567 million.
One lingering and market-concerned issue is whether the US trade restrictions with China would hinder NVIDIA Corporation's long-term growth. In April this year, the Trump administration implemented new restrictions on exporting data center AI chips to Chinese customers, effectively excluding NVIDIA Corporation's H20 from that market. On Wednesday, the chip giant reported a charge of $4.5 billion for impairment, better than the $5.5 billion expected by the institution.
Analyst Jacob Bourne from Emarketer pointed out in a report, "A more widespread concern is that global trade tensions and potential tariffs will impact the revenue expansion of data centers, possibly causing resistance to AI chip demand in the coming quarters."
However, NVIDIA Corporation CEO Huang Renxun's optimistic comments during the performance conference call significantly eased market concerns. With NVIDIA Corporation's strong revenue prospects, coupled with the strong performance expectations from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR, the market believes that the tariffs have not hindered the strong demand for AI chips, and the strong sales prospects of Blackwell are expected to cover the reduced market share in China. Huang Renxun predicted that the Blackwell series would set a record for the strongest AI chip sales ever, and that the demand for AI computing power brought by the inference terminal was boundless, driving the artificial intelligence computing power infrastructure market to "experience exponential growth."
During the conference call with analysts, Huang Renxun was asked if the company would produce a new data center AI chip to resume exports to China. Previously, the company had launched the lower-performance H20 product to comply with early US regulations. But stricter restrictions now limit any sales in the Chinese market.
Huang Renxun stated that NVIDIA Corporation could not further reduce the functionality of the H20, while still striving to introduce practical products for China. The company is considering developing some "interesting" products for the Chinese market. He said NVIDIA Corporation is currently discussing this idea and has no specific plans yet. If a new product can be designed, NVIDIA Corporation will consult with the US government.
Huang Renxun also used this highly anticipated performance conference call to once again urge the Trump administration to allow them to introduce AI chips to China again. He stated that without this permission, the global leadership in the AI sector is uncertain. Huang Renxun also mentioned that Chinese companies will succeed in the AI field with their own semiconductor strength.
"Losing access to the Chinese AI chip market, which we expect to grow to nearly $50 billion, will have a substantial adverse impact on our future business and benefit our foreign competitors in China and globally," Huang Renxun said.
NVIDIA Corporation is not the only technology company facing a tougher stance from the Trump administration towards China. HP Inc. also warned of "trade-related" cost pressures during its earnings release on Wednesday, causing its stock price to drop by about 8% in after-hours trading.
Meanwhile, there have been reports that some EDA chip design software suppliers have been warned by the US government to stop selling their products in China.
Initially known for selling high-performance GPU graphics cards to gamers, NVIDIA Corporation has become the dominant player in data center AI chips over the past two years. Headquartered in Santa Clara, California, the company quickly realized the potential of its so-called "accelerated computing" - a hardware and software solution that lays the foundation for machine systems to achieve human-like learning and reasoning.
The latest results show that NVIDIA Corporation remains the undisputed "strongest seller" in the global AI field, with a market share as high as 80% to 90% in AI training/inference. Riding on the unprecedented boom of global enterprises deploying AI, NVIDIA Corporation has dedicated itself to AI chip development in recent years. Its parallel architecture, suitable for artificial intelligence and a wide range of high-performance computing, has positioned NVIDIA Corporation's AI GPU as the leader in the industry.
NVIDIA Corporation founder Huang Renxun predicts that the Blackwell series will set a record for the strongest sales of AI chips ever and that the demand for AI computing power brought by the inference terminal is boundless, driving the artificial intelligence computing power infrastructure market to experience exponential growth.The core hardware of the domain, relying on the AI GPU+CUDA ecosystem, has established an extremely wide protective moat.Especially in the AI training process, NVIDIA Corporation's AI GPU helps software large models learn to recognize and respond to natural language inputs in the real world. Since 2024, NVIDIA Corporation's AI GPU has also been widely used to run large-scale AI server clusters for super AI models such as GPT and Claude series. This process is called "AI inference," and Huang Renxun believes it will be the main source of revenue for NVIDIA Corporation in the future.
NVIDIA Corporation CEO Huang Renxun emphasized that the global transition to artificial intelligence is just beginning, and he believes that accelerating specific tasks through GPU-accelerated computing by breaking them down into smaller parts and processing them in parallel is taking the lead.
Since the popularity of ChatGPT worldwide, as the influence of AI on the global high-tech industry and technological development continues to grow, CPUs that focus on single-thread performance and general-purpose computing are still essential in the chip field. However, their position and importance in the chip field are far less than GPUs. After all, CPU design is intended for general-purpose computing among various routine tasks, rather than handling massive parallel computing patterns and high computing density matrix operations like GPUs do.
The Blackwell series AI chip is the core driving force behind NVIDIA Corporation's continued strong performance in the future.
The market value of this chip giant has climbed to over $3 trillion, accounting for about 10% of the total market value of the Nasdaq, making investors' expectations for its performance and the extent of surpassing expectations extremely high. They have become accustomed to rapid performance growth and remarkable profits from NVIDIA Corporation. Even a slight deviation from high expectations could raise concerns about a slowdown in the AI boom.
NVIDIA Corporation holds about 80%-90% of the AI chip market, which is a very profitable sector. In the latest fiscal year, NVIDIA Corporation's overall annual revenue is expected to reach nearly $200 billion, compared to only $27 billion two years ago. The reason Wall Street analysts have such strong performance expectations for NVIDIA Corporation is primarily because the Blackwell series AI chips are expected to bring in much stronger revenue than the Hopper architecture.
According to a research report by Morgan Stanley released before NVIDIA Corporation announced its performance, despite the short-term financial pressure brought by the "H20 sales restrictions" which could result in sales losses of around $5 billion for NVIDIA Corporation, the market may underestimate the long-term potential for explosive growth in AI inference demand. Coupled with a significant improvement in Blackwell chip supply, NVIDIA Corporation's performance in the second half of the year may reach a new accelerated turning point.
Issues such as overheating caused by 72 high-performance GPUs, leaks in liquid cooling systems, software bugs, and rack problems with chip-to-chip connections have threatened NVIDIA Corporation's annual sales targets and had a negative impact on the company's stock price. However, Morgan Stanley stated that the three ODM manufacturers responsible for about 90% of the supply of Blackwell AI server racks had reached a monthly production volume of about 1,500 racks in April. This number is expected to continue to increase throughout the year.
The Morgan Stanley analysis team also believes that the market underestimates the demand growth for non-rack form Blackwell chips. As many customers are not yet ready to adopt liquid cooling technology or ARM processors, they will seek B200 or other forms of Blackwell chips to meet the intense expansion of inference demands.
SemiAnalysis analyst Chu Wei-Chia said, "This manufacturing technology is indeed very complex. No company has ever tried to have so many high-performance AI chips working simultaneously in server clusters in such a short time frame. NVIDIA Corporation did not give the supply chain enough preparation time, leading to supply delays. As manufacturers increase rack production in the second half of the year, the inventory risk of GB200 will be alleviated."
NVIDIA Corporation executives expect that the cutting-edge AI chip product, the Blackwell Ultra architecture AI GPU, will begin shipping in this quarter, which is the second quarter. As the flagship product of the Blackwell Ultra architecture, the GB300 AI GPU will go into production this quarter. NVIDIA Corporation executives stated that the accelerated growth in Blackwell Ultra shipments may help improve future revenue and gross margins in the coming months.
The AI computing industry chain, known as the "strongest Alpha," is expected to continue outperforming the market.
The analyst team at BlackRock, Inc. pointed out that artificial intelligence has been the key driver of global stock market growth in the past few years and forecast that it will continue to be so in the coming years. Despite potential continued market uncertainty due to adjustments in U.S. government trade policy measures, including export controls and tariff risks targeting specific countries or regions, BlackRock, Inc. still believes that "select AI investment opportunities" continue to emerge.
In a recent earnings call, photolithography giant ASML Holding NV ADR (ASML.US) indicated that management expects both 2025 and 2026 to be years of growth. They also predict that dynamic end-market demand will tilt chip product portfolios towards high-end process AI chips and data center storage chips. This semiconductor equipment giant, considered the "pinnacle of human technology," emphasized that under the pressure of tariffs, the demand for AI computing power is high.Continuing to be strong, with the focus of AI computing power shifting towards the endless field of AI reasoning, this has been confirmed by high-end lithography machine customers, who have expressed the need for continuous large-scale investment in the AI technology field.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR, known as the "king of chip manufacturing", announced its latest performance, showing a sharp increase in AI computing power demand. More importantly, under the heavy pressure of Trump's global tariff threats, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR reiterated its strong performance growth data. The company maintained its revenue growth expectations for 2025, with this year's growth rate expected to reach around 25%, consistent with the target set in January, with AI-related revenue expected to double.
On the issue of global investors' focus on tariffs, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR stated that it has not observed any changes in customer behavior due to American tariffs, contrasting sharply with the uncertain global market. In particular, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR plans to double its CoWoS advanced packaging capacity, mainly for NVIDIA Corporation's AI GPU capacity, demonstrating the company's confidence that the strong demand for AI chips will continue into early 2026.
During the earnings conference call, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR management still expects a compound annual revenue growth rate of about 20% over the next 5 years (2024-29), with AI-related revenue expected to grow by around 45%, consistent with the strong expectations given at the previous earnings conference, suggesting that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR has not seen any cooling demand due to Trump's aggressive global tariff policy.
Furthermore, although NVIDIA Corporation is being pushed out of the Chinese market, other policy changes may help open up more markets. U.S. President Trump recently visited Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Middle East, announcing a large AI infrastructure project. This move reverses the Biden administration's previous restrictions on the region's access to AI chips.
Huang Renxun was asked if he would launch a similar AI plan in other countries. He said he will go to Europe next week. "I will go to France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Belgium," he said. "It is very clear now that every country recognizes that AI computing resources are part of national infrastructure, like electricity, the internet, and telecommunications."
Morgan Stanley released a research report on May 27 stating that NVIDIA Corporation is still the bank's preferred semiconductor stock, maintaining an "overweight" rating with a target price of $160, and giving NVIDIA Corporation's bullish target price as high as $203.
Another Wall Street bank, Bank of America, stated that NVLink Fusion technology allows data centers to mix NVIDIA Corporation GPUs with third-party CPUs or custom AI accelerators, signaling that NVIDIA Corporation is officially breaking down hardware barriers and expanding its reach to a broader market. The bank reiterated its "buy" rating on NVIDIA Corporation stock with a target price of $160.
The well-known Wall Street investment firm Oppenheimer reaffirmed its "AI chip big three", NVIDIA Corporation, Broadcom Inc., and Marvell Technology, Inc., as its top picks in the semiconductor sector, stating: "In the tumultuous macro environment and tariff background, we believe that AI chips are the strongest and safest growth direction."
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