small rebound after eight consecutive declines? Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) still unable to escape the shadow of Trump's tariffs.

Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) just experienced its longest consecutive decline in stock price in over three years, and the escalating trade attacks from the White House could further weaken its profit prospects, meaning the company's stock price struggles this year are far from over. Last Friday, US President Donald Trump threatened that if Apple Inc. does not shift its iPhone production line to the US, a 25% tariff would be imposed on its products. As a result, Apple Inc. stock fell 3% last Friday, marking the eighth consecutive trading day of decline, setting a record for the longest consecutive decline since January 2022. However, the stock rose nearly 2% in pre-market trading on Tuesday. Despite some analysts questioning whether the tariff policy will actually materialize, any related developments will put Apple Inc. in a dilemma: either bear higher costs, dragging down profits and profit margins; or pass on costs to consumers - and at a time when Apple Inc. is facing stagnating growth and challenges in its artificial intelligence business, raising prices could further suppress demand. Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital, said, "This threat may have political motivations, but the market cannot ignore the risks," "Even if tariffs are never implemented, such rhetoric will gradually erode investor confidence. No one can operate a $3 trillion company with a 'trade grenade' hanging overhead." As the worst performing stock among the "Magnificent Seven," Apple Inc. has seen a cumulative decline of 22% in 2025, in stark contrast to the 0.5% decline in the Nasdaq 100 index. Although its stock price has fallen below key moving averages, according to the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), it has not yet entered oversold territory. The CBOE Volatility Index, which tracks future volatility expectations for Apple Inc. stock, soared over 30% last week. While Apple Inc. has previously experienced stock price volatility related to politics and tariffs, last Friday's sell-off was far smaller than the dramatic fluctuations when tariffs were first announced in April - at that time, Apple Inc. experienced historic volatility, including its largest four-day decline since October 2000. The Trump administration subsequently withdrew several extreme tariff proposals, exempting key electronic product categories such as smartphones and computers from "reciprocal tariffs," and both China and the US agreed to temporarily reduce tariffs on each other's products. "If tariffs are actually implemented, most investors may be surprised," said Matt Stucky, chief investment portfolio manager for stocks at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management. He added that Apple Inc.'s stock price performance last Friday reflected this: if investors believed a 25% tariff will be imposed, the stock price could see a deeper decline. The rapid change in Trump's stance was particularly evident last Friday: he first criticized Apple Inc. on social media, and a few hours later announced that a 25% tariff would apply to all foreign-made smartphones. Samik Chatterjee, an analyst at JPMorgan, pointed out somewhat ironically that if all competitors in the industry face the same challenges, "Apple Inc.'s pricing power over consumers and suppliers may actually give it a relative advantage rather than a disadvantage compared to peers." However, Apple Inc. still struggles to find a clear strategy to appease Trump. Daniel Ives, an analyst at Wedbush, pointed out that completely achieving local production of the iPhone is an "unrealistic fairy tale." Considering the complexity of Apple Inc.'s supply chain - including raw materials, assembly, labor, and machinery - Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that shifting iPhone assembly to the US could take several quarters. Bank of America estimated last month that if produced in the US, iPhone costs could rise by over 90%. Reportedly, Apple Inc. is considering raising prices, but trying to avoid attributing this to tariffs, as Trump has previously criticized companies for raising prices due to tariffs. Different institutions predict different potential impacts of tariffs on Apple Inc.: Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that tariffs could lower Apple Inc.'s gross margin by 30-35% in the 2026 fiscal year; Citigroup analyst Atif Malik expects an additional decrease of approximately 13% in gross margin, or a 4% decrease in earnings per share (EPS) for the 2026 fiscal year. Aaron Rakers, an analyst at Wells Fargo Securities, while questioning the possibility of tariffs materializing, pointed out that Apple Inc. would need to raise iPhone prices by $250-300 per unit to maintain its gross margin. Ives of Wedbush stated that if produced in the US, the iPhone could be priced as high as $3,500. Due to the uncertainty, analysts have begun to lower expectations: over the past three months, market consensus forecasts for Apple Inc.'s 2026 net profit have decreased by 5.1%, while revenue expectations have fallen by 3.9%. Further downward revisions could lead to a shrinking denominator of Apple Inc.'s price-to-earnings ratio (P/E), making it appear more highly valued. Currently, Apple Inc.'s P/E ratio is around 26 times, higher than its 10-year average and higher than other large tech stocks expected to grow faster. The combination of high valuation and low growth suggests that even without the tariff factor, Apple Inc.'s stock price is facing a tough situation. "We are in an awkward situation where it is almost a 'lose-lose' scenario," said Zacks Investment ManagementCustomer portfolio manager Brian Mulberry said, "There may be a price point that will attract long-term investors, but the current valuation and uncertainty mean we have not reached that point yet.""Trying to catch the falling knife now is no different than catching a flying dagger bare-handed," he added.