Goldman Sachs continues to transform into the "oil bear," believing that "oversupply" is inevitable and oil prices will fall until 2026.

Wall Street major bank Goldman Sachs recently released a new research report stating that the international crude oil benchmark Brent crude oil price, as well as the North American crude oil pricing benchmark WTI crude oil price, will be even lower than the current year's relative lows and will remain weak in the years 2025-2026. Since the beginning of this year, Goldman Sachs, which has long been known as the "vanguard of the commodity bull market", has continued to play the role of "major bearish player in crude oil prices", repeatedly releasing research reports bearish on the trend of crude oil prices. Goldman Sachs recently stated that the "oversupply" in the crude oil market in the coming year may lead to an earlier peak in U.S. shale oil production, which may be even lower than previously expected. Goldman Sachs stated that in the next two years, the oil production growth of top projects in non-OPEC countries other than Russia may accelerate to 1 million barrels per day, leading to a larger scale of the so-called "oversupply". Goldman Sachs also stated that the continued expansion of crude oil supply from these projects will continue to exert strong downward pressure on Brent and WTI prices. Goldman Sachs' views are consistent with expectations from other Wall Street financial giants such as Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley, all predicting a significant "oversupply" in the oil market in 2025 and 2026, leading to a continuous decline in international oil prices until 2026. Another major Wall Street bank, JPMorgan Chase, recently stated that they continue to favor gold and maintain a bearish trading strategy on crude oil and base metals. Goldman Sachs' commodity analysis team recently revised down their expectations for international oil prices, mainly due to the ongoing upgrade of the oversupply trend in the crude oil market under OPEC+'s production increase expectations and the significantly weaker global demand growth under the "tariff storm" led by the Trump administration, which is why the Brent crude oil futures prices have nearly halved since April. The bank currently predicts that the average international crude oil price benchmark curve Brent crude oil will be $60 per barrel in the remaining time of 2025, and the average WTI crude oil price will be $56 per barrel, both down from previous expectations; Goldman Sachs further lowered its forecast for oil prices in 2026, with Brent crude oil average price falling sharply to $55 per barrel, and WTI crude oil average price expectation dropping to only $51 per barrel, compared to Goldman Sachs' previous expectations of $58 and $55 respectively. Goldman Sachs also predicts that in a typical U.S. economic recession and with OPEC's moderate production increase baseline, the Brent crude oil price is expected to plummet to $58 per barrel by December 2025, and to $50 per barrel by December 2026. In the case of a significant slowdown in global GDP and if OPEC maintains its moderate production increase baseline, Goldman Sachs predicts that the Brent crude oil price will fall to $54 per barrel by December 2025, and to $45 per barrel by December 2026. Goldman Sachs' commodity analysis team conducted an internal analysis of U.S. President Trump's social media tweets regarding oil topics and found that President Trump, who is determined to suppress U.S. inflation, seems to prefer an oil price between $40 and $50 per barrel. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, including Daan Struyven, stated in a report that Trump "has been paying attention to oil and America's energy dominance, having posted nearly 900 related tweets". They also stated, "From this, it can be inferred that Trump seems to prefer a WTI price between $40 and $50 per barrel, in this price range, his tendency to tweet about oil prices is minimal." Concerns about further increases in supply from the OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia weighed on Brent crude oil futures prices, which fell to around $64.5 per barrel on Tuesday. The organization is set to hold a capacity meeting later this week and may ultimately confirm production targets for July, with insiders revealing that the meeting may show a significant increase in production of 411,000 barrels per day. Earlier this month, OPEC+ agreed to accelerate production increases for two consecutive months in June. Since mid-January this year, international oil prices have fallen by more than 10%, with core pressure coming from two major factors: firstly, the global trade tension triggered by the Trump administration's imposition of tariffs on multiple major trading countries, with retaliatory measures taken by China, the EU, and Canada further exacerbating concerns about the outlook for energy demand; secondly, the gradual exit of the OPEC+ oil-producing countries alliance from the voluntary production cut agreement, coupled with the continued production increases and the expectation of weak demand under the "tariff storm", have continued to create negative resonance of "oversupply". The current international oil trading market is in a sensitive period of interweaving of multiple factors: on the one hand, the potential escalation of global trade tensions could inhibit global economic growth and crude oil consumption; on the other hand, if OPEC+ is able to release a cautious production increase signal at the meeting rather than a significant increase, it may provide temporary support for international oil prices. Traders are waiting for more policy signals from the Trump administration and OPEC+ on production capacity to determine whether the supply-demand balance sheet in the second half of the year will lean heavily towards oversupply.