NVIDIA Corporation(NVDA.US): Stock price fluctuating at high levels, valuation is relatively high, short-term may face risk of a pullback.

Next week, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) is about to release its financial report, and the US stock research community is focused on the price trend of NVIDIA Corporation. NVIDIA Corporation has a leading position in the AI computing power field, with a solid market position based on performance and ecosystem, as well as rapid and stable financial performance, recently also receiving positive news to boost it. However, risks such as intensifying competition, policy uncertainties from GEO Group Inc, supply chain concerns, and slower-than-expected development in the Middle East should not be overlooked. The current valuation is on the high side, reflecting the market's strong confidence in its future profitability. However, if performance falls short of expectations, there is a risk of a valuation correction. The stock price has been fluctuating in the range of 130-138 US dollars recently, and if it breaks through the upper BOLL line, it may usher in a new round of upward momentum. However, the MACD and KDJ indicators show continued short-term correction risks, while the long-term uptrend remains unchanged. The US stock market has been showing signs of weakness in recent days, especially with a significant sell-off on May 21st, with the S&P 500 ETF-SPDR, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite Index closing with declines of 1.61%, 1.91%, and 1.41% respectively. The trigger was mainly due to the weak performance of the latest round of US bond auctions, with yields significantly higher than market expectations, indicating low investor interest. In addition, Moody's Corporation recently downgraded the US credit rating, increasing market concerns about the sustainability of US debt, leading to a drop in US bond prices and rising yields. Moreover, the market is also concerned about whether US tax cuts will raise the US fiscal deficit and accelerate the surge in US debt. In addition, there are a series of catalysts worth paying attention to in the coming days, which could closely affect the market trend: Will US inflation data further slow down, reigniting market expectations for interest rate cuts? Will US monetary policy be influenced by Trump's political interference? After the 90-day pause in tariff negotiations, will an agreement be reached? What changes will the risks and liquidity of GEO Group Inc bring? Will US corporate earnings meet market expectations, and can the financial reports of tech giants support their high valuations? Will US stock indices see a technical adjustment? The macro environment is complex, and no one can predict exactly how the stock market will move next, but in the coming months, some volatility and corrections are expected. However, in the long term, the tech sector will continue to be a major focus of the market. Speaking of the tech sector, let's talk about today's focus: NVIDIA Corporation. NVIDIA Corporation is about to release its financial report next week and has always been one of the most closely watched targets in the US stock market, especially around the time of its financial report. Now, let's talk about the signals that NVIDIA Corporation is showing in terms of fundamentals, technology, and funding, and how to easily deploy related opportunities with options! Finding trading signals from various information sources! In summary, NVIDIA Corporation has a strong moat, with challenges and opportunities ahead, a long-term trend in valuation and technology, but short-term correction risks. The implied volatility of options has not yet reached its highest level, with bulls and bears still in conflict, but the large orders on May 21st show a stronger bullish sentiment. Let's look at the details. 1. How is the fundamental situation? Based on the financial report, it is clear that NVIDIA Corporation has had a strong performance in the past. The size and growth rate of revenue and net profit are impressive, mainly driven by its core business in data centers. The gross profit margin is also at a high level, and the cash flow and balance sheet are stable. Looking ahead, market forecasts for several key financial indicators for Q1 and Q2 2026 also show a steady growth trend. Although the export of NVIDIA Corporation's H20 chips to China is restricted by the US, which may affect its revenue in the Chinese market, and there is increasing competition in the chip industry from companies like AMD, Alphabet Inc. Class C, Microsoft Corporation, Amazon.com, Inc., as well as domestic companies like Huawei, NVIDIA Corporation remains the leader in AI chips, with its performance and ecosystem advantages creating a strong moat. Moreover, there have been several positive news recently: On one hand, breakthroughs in the Middle East market, with investments in AI infrastructure by countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which may boost demand for Blackwell chips. NVIDIA Corporation's Blackwell architecture chips are also collaborating with Super Micro Computer, Inc. for mass production, to fully replace the old Hopper architecture. NVIDIA Corporation has also recently decided to establish a research laboratory in China to comply with US sanctions, promising to design AI chips compatible with the Chinese market, which may be completed before June. In addition, Huang Renxun also announced today the launch of the next generation GB300 system, the full-scale production of the personal AI computer DGX Spark, and other significant advancements. However, there are also concerns in the market. Concerns about the supply chain risks in the early stage of Blackwell production, concerns about the growth prospects in the Middle East facing execution risks, and concerns that NVIDIA Corporation's successful experience in deploying AI infrastructure in the Middle East may be replicated by other AI infrastructure companies or other large-scale enterprises. The market now believes that NVIDIA Corporation's impressive triple-digit growth rate will further slow down in the 2027 fiscal year. In terms of valuation, NVIDIA Corporation is in a unique position to benefit from the growth in AI and other technology sectors, but there are also risks and uncertainties in the market that need to be carefully considered.Currently, the static price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is 44.83, which is lower than its historical median but higher than the industry average (the PE ratio for semiconductors is 25 times). The price-to-book ratio and price-to-sales ratio are significantly higher than the industry average.What signals are there on the technical, funding, and options fronts? As of May 21, the stock price of $NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US)$ has been fluctuating in the range of $130-138. Short-term support has formed around $130, while there is short-term resistance around $138. The BOLL line shows that the current stock price is between the middle track and the upper track, closer to the upper track at $141.551. If it holds steady, it may see a new breakout. MACD shows that the DIF and DEA lines are converging above the zero axis, indicating a weakening short-term momentum but still in an upward trend in the medium to long term. The KDJ line currently shows an overbought signal, reflecting a bearish short-term trend. In terms of funding, there has been a continuous net outflow in recent days, with a net outflow of $1.7 billion on May 21, possibly due to short-term profit-taking. However, looking at short interest data, the short interest ratio on May 21 was 13.49%, below the market average, and the short position ratio has also declined recently, indicating limited pressure from shorts. Turning to options data, the current implied volatility (IV) is 56.23%, which is considered relatively moderate and has not reached a high level yet. Looking at the options open interest, options expiring before the end of June have similar open interest, showing a relatively clear difference in sentiment between bulls and bears. In summary, NVIDIA Corporation's leading position in AI computing power is relatively solid, with a strong performance in performance and ecosystem. Financially, it has maintained a stable growth trajectory, with recent positive news. However, there are risks such as increased competition, export restrictions, supply chain risks, and slower-than-expected growth in emerging markets. The current valuation is relatively high, reflecting market confidence in its future profitability. However, if it falls short of expectations, a valuation correction may occur. The stock price has been fluctuating between $130-138, and a breakout above the BOLL line upper band could lead to a new uptrend. Combining MACD and KDJ, there may be short-term downside risk, but the long-term uptrend remains unchanged. There is pressure from outflows of funds in the short term, possibly due to profit-taking, but current short-selling pressure is limited. The current options IV has not reached its peak, indicating a possibility of further increase. The distribution of options open interest shows that bulls and bears are still active, but recent options activity suggests a relatively bullish sentiment, with traders focusing on the $110-160 and $120-145 price ranges.