Tariff suspension cannot hide underlying concerns: Economists warn that the US economy faces ten major risks.

Although the bond market continues to sound the alarm on the long-term fiscal health of the United States, market expectations for the U.S. economy to fall into a recession this year have significantly cooled since the temporary suspension of tariffs between China and the U.S. took effect. According to data from the prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of a recession estimated by the market at the beginning of this month once reached as high as 67%, but has since fallen to below 40%. However, Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, points out that there are still multiple risks lurking in the U.S. economic outlook. His latest report lists the top ten downside risks, including: 1. Sovereign rating downgrade: Moody's recently placed the U.S. credit rating on a negative watchlist, which could push up consumer and corporate financing costs. 2. Lagging impact of tariffs: the negative impact of previous tariff increases on corporate profits is still ongoing. 3. Trade policy uncertainty: the repeated risk of trade friction from trade agreements may trigger a new round of trade disputes. 4. Deterioration of the business environment: companies face extreme uncertainty when formulating business plans, and market confidence remains low. 5. Weak consumer momentum: data from retail giants like Walmart show that rising prices are stifling consumer spending. 6. Weak confidence indicators: The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index has long been at historic lows. 7. Tourism industry setback: Weak growth in international business and leisure travel demand. 8. Restart of student loans: Over 40 million Americans will need to resume repayments of student loans starting in October. 9. Cooling real estate market: Rising mortgage rates leads to continued contraction in housing demand. 10. Fluctuations in administrative efficiency: Government personnel changes may pose a challenge to policy implementation stability. Although the temporary tariff suspension agreement injected short-term confidence into the market, these risk factors are intertwined and may pose a sustained test to the economy's resilience. The steepening trend of the U.S. bond yield curve and the cooling of recession expectations reflect deep-seated concerns in the market about fiscal sustainability and a shift in monetary policy direction.